The shifting dynamics of the US-Russia normalization process

Since Donald Trump took office, while the Russia-Ukraine conflict did not end as he had promised during his campaign, significant shifts have emerged in early 2025. The direction of the conflict is increasingly shaped by US-Russia dynamics. For Trump and his administration, normalizing US-Russia relations seems to take precedence over the peace process in Ukraine. To some extent, resolving the war is more of a secondary outcome in this broader effort to reset relations between the two powers, writes He Yan, researcher at ANBOUND.

A key milestone in this process was the first round of high-level talks on February 18, 2025, in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, where both sides agreed on a four-point consensus: restoring diplomatic relations, finding a solution to the Russia-Ukraine conflict, exploring geopolitical cooperation, and reinstating embassy staff. Russia’s diplomatic approach remains dual-track, with one team taking a hardline stance and the other advocating for moderation. For example, Dmitry Medvedev, Deputy Chairman of Russia’s Security Council, had said that under the current conditions, full normalization “will drag on for decades”, blaming lingering crises from the Biden administration.

However, after the Riyadh talks, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov noted that the normalization process had officially begun, mentioning there is “noticeable progress”. On the U.S. side, figures like Secretary of State Marco Rubio highlighted the symbolic importance of the talks but did not indicate substantive progress, suggesting that while the process had started, it was still in early stages. Russia’s previous tough rhetoric was likely part of a diplomatic tactic.

On April 10, the second round of US-Russia talks took place in Istanbul, Turkey, focusing on resuming embassy and consular operations. U.S. State Department spokesperson Tammy Bruce emphasized that Ukraine was not on the agenda, and that normalization would only happen once peace was achieved between Russia and Ukraine. This reflects the broader stance of the Rubio-led U.S. State Department, though it may not represent the entire Trump administration's view. Interestingly, on April 14, Dmitry Peskov, press secretary to President Putin, stated that Russia and the U.S. were at the beginning stages of normalizing relations.

As these negotiations deepened, Putin began deploying key figures from his diplomatic circle. In April 2025, Kirill Dmitriev, head of Russia’s sovereign wealth fund, visited Washington for talks with figures like Steve Witkoff and Marco Rubio. Dmitriev, described as a powerful lobbyist and a key member of Putin’s inner circle, has long maintained ties with Trump’s allies, even during the height of the Ukraine war. His increasing public role signals a potential shift in U.S.-Russia relations.

In terms of broader geopolitics, China does not appear to be a major obstacle to this process, and in fact, Russia may be using its relationship with China as leverage in negotiations with the US. During the US-China tariff war, Russia offered to shield the US from China’s most potent retaliatory measures, such as rare earth exports and Boeing aircraft. In 2025, Russia reiterated its willingness to supply rare earth materials to the U.S., even offering to process them and bear the environmental costs. This diplomatic maneuver highlights Russia’s flexible dual-track strategy, engaging both China and the U.S. in a manner that serves its interests.

It is clear that the U.S. and Russia are redefining their bilateral relationship as major powers. However, deep-rooted contradictions in areas like strategic competition, nuclear arms control, and geopolitical influence will likely persist. The normalization process is expected to be long, complex, and fraught with setbacks. Still, the trajectory towards this normalization seems increasingly inevitable, with the process accelerating and a redefinition of the relationship now more a matter of "when", not "if".

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