Europe cannot afford to lose the Sahel

The European Commission is expected to unveil a new Security Strategy this summer. While the threat from Russia is felt and the situation in the Middle East raises concerns, Europe cannot afford to ignore the Sahel. Since French troops withdrew from the Sahel in 2022, Europe has largely neglected the region at its southern flank. The result? Jihadist movements are on the rise, Russia and China are expanding their influence, Iran is deepening its ties and instability is growing. Europe must invest in stability and development in its southern backyard, not only to enhance stability in the Sahel, but also for Europe itself, writes Lieutenant General (ret.) Kees Matthijssen, former Force Commander of the UN mission in Mali.

The Sahel region of northern Africa - comprising countries including Mali, Niger, Chad, Sudan, and parts of Nigeria - poses a massive challenge to Europe. Since French troops withdrew from the region in 2022, Europe has been largely absent from this vast area. In that period, three of the five countries in the region have experienced military coups, and all face increasingly powerful and violent jihadist groups who spread terror and havoc throughout the rural areas of each country. When I led the UN Mission in Mali, I saw first-hand how jihadist organisations exploit poverty and instability to gain influence.

Governments of the Sahel are looking externally for support against these groups, and are largely receiving this from countries hostile to Europe - Russia and, more recently, Iran. The EU should invest in military support, development aid and cooperation in the region to rebuild its reputation and prevent anti-Western forces from gaining even more of a stronghold so close to our southern border.

Jihadist groups are on the rise

When France withdrew its troops, extremists took advantage of the security vacuum to scale up their violence. In 2024, conflict deaths in the region exceeded 25,000 for the first time, and this number continues to increase. The Sahel is sadly the epicentre of global terrorism - over half of terrorism-related deaths globally occurred in the Sahel in 2024.

Two jihadist groups - with links to al-Qaeda and Islamic State - are increasingly spreading beyond the Sahel region, into countries like Ghana and Nigeria. Not only do they commit brutal atrocities, but they also undermine governments and seize resources. The Sahel is a key transit point for migrants travelling and illicit trafficking from sub-Saharan Africa to Europe, and the increasing violence leads to higher displacement from the region. Europe cannot afford to bury its head in the sand and ignore the plight of people in the Sahel. If it continues to do so, the repercussions will be huge for Europe.

Russia and Iran in the Sahel

While making it clear that they are not willing to compromise their sovereignty, governments in the Sahel are increasingly looking to foreign powers to help them fight these jihadist groups. Russia has stepped in to fill this role. Europe is seen as asking too much of countries in the Sahel in exchange for assistance, while Russia is perceived as delivering concrete results with fewer conditions.

Russia is building its relationships with regimes in the Sahel, and across Africa more generally, to weaken Western influence and gain access to critical resources. This was highlighted loud and clear when 5 Sahel countries voted against a UN General Assembly draft resolution on lasting peace in Ukraine. It is maneuvering strategically, and it is not the only country doing so. Iran is taking a leaf out of Russia’s book. At the end of February, the Iranian president and defence minister met with the defence minister of Burkina Faso to strengthen security ties. Iran has provided training and military equipment to Niger, Mali and Burkina Faso. In 2024, it was alleged that Iran was secretly planning to buy uranium from Niger to build a nuclear weapon.

The EU must act

International powers are increasingly moving into the Sahel to establish a presence close to Europe’s border and gain access to the rich resources of the region. Russia, China and Iran are exploiting fragility in the Sahel for their own interests. Meanwhile, Europe seems to neglect how important the Sahel is for our own security.

We must re-engage with the Sahel and contribute to building stability there, for the sake of stability here. We must keep in mind that growing instability, effects of climate change, lack of economic progress and fast-growing populations will affect Europe even more in the (near) future. We will have to be honest about what hasn’t worked in the past and build partnerships on an equal footing, investing in defence capacity while supporting countries to lift people out of poverty and provide basic services such as healthcare, education and security. This is the only way to thwart jihadist groups at their root, and undermine the efforts of Russia and Iran to gain a stronghold in Europe’s backyard.

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