Peacemaker from the periphery: Nechirvan Barzani’s strategic diplomacy

The overthrow of the Assad regime on 8 December of last year by Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), took the international community largely by surprise, opening up widespread speculation about the future of the newly forming Syrian state. The interim President, Ahmad al-Sharaa, has since pledged that the country would remain unified despite diverse ethnic and political interests. The United States and Turkey have, likewise, welcomed and supported these efforts in transitioning the new Syrian government from revolution to peaceful unity. Recent tensions, however, have led the US and Turkey to issue a 30-day ultimatum to the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), who are resistant to some of the demands for incorporation, writes Dr. Ruwayda Mustafah, British-Kurdish political commentator.

The Kurdish group is seeking autonomy, partitioning Syria, or at the very least, maintaining a separate military command within the Syrian army. This prompted Thomas Barrack, the US ambassador to Turkey and special envoy for Syria, to respond with the ultimatum, saying: “If you guys don’t agree, then don’t agree, but we’re not going to be here forever as the babysitter and the mediator.” Amid these frustrated talks for incorporation, Nechirvan Barzani, the President of Iraq’s Kurdistan Region, has joined in as a pivotal mediator. His strong relationships have overcome socio-political divides, helping to advocate for Syrian Kurds while mediating solutions in the fragmented landscape across the Middle East.

The Syrian government in Damascus first signed a deal for unification with the SDF in March, agreeing that the SDF and affiliated institutions would be subsumed into the central authority. The agreement, made between SDF commander Mazloum Abdi and President Ahmed al-Sharaa, was intended to remove the autonomous Kurdish administration in northeastern Syria, while integrating Kurdish leadership into the Damascus government. Nonetheless, the Kurdish push for certain guarantees of regional self-governance and full military incorporation has stalled negotiations. For example, the SDF would like to preserve its chain of command and operational structure. Certainly, some compromises will need to be found. One point of contention, for instance, is the incorporation of the SDF’s all-women units into the ranks of the Syrian army. The Damascus government is largely opposed to such integration. Furthermore, Kurds are concerned about potential marginalization in a newly formed and centralizing system. Syria’s Foreign Minister Asaad al-Shaibani further exacerbated the debate on July 9 when he demanded the SDF’s retreat from Deir ez-Zor, a majority Arab province adjacent to Iraq. The SDF refused, causing a delay in negotiations, which culminated in the 30-day ultimatum given earlier this week.

The ultimatum undoubtedly reflects larger geopolitical events. Turkey has largely opposed the SDF as an associate of the recently disbanded Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), while the US now seeks to stabilize the region and solidify its post-ISIS alliances. Despite this, Nechirvan Barzani, President of the Kurdistan Region of Iraq (KRI) (pictured) has been able to step into the ongoing regional changes, relying on his long relationship with President Erdogan. Over the past decades, he has worked hard to forge ties between Ankara and Erbil, even influencing Turkey to moderate its position towards the SDF. Turkey halted its military operations against the SDF earlier this year, as it also seeks to find a more durable resolution to ethnic tensions. Barzani has also worked to engage with US interests, advocating for cohesion within Syria. He has argued that more flexible governance models could better account for the diversity of communities within Syria, fostering stability and shared security for Arabs, Kurds, Christians, and Druze alike. Despite the ultimatum, Barzani is optimistic about a successful resolution to the competing interests. He believes in a hybrid compromise, hoping to find the balance between centralization and complete federalism. His exemplary governance in the KRI, for example, has shown a successful harmonisation of autonomy with Iraqi oversight. In Syria now, his expertise could be vital to tempering expectations and fostering agreement. If no arrangement is reached, the region could devolve into a scenario where Kurds face increased alienation and anti-ISIS coalition remnants are destabilized.

Given the shorter time frame, Barzani’s aid in negotiations will be essential for bridging the interests of Damascus, Washington, Ankara, and Kurdish groups. The process of advocating for strength found in a unified diversity of peoples will hinge on the willingness of both sides to compromise. This will test Barzani’s diplomatic capabilities as a negotiator and his capacity to shape a peaceful vision of harmony for the region. Whether a solution will be found remains uncertain, but Barzani’s role in crafting a cohesive yet pluralistic Syria is indispensable.

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