Concerns over Ukraine's military resource integration and defence capabilities

The Ukrainian military is caught in a difficult position, with Russian forces advancing through large-scale offensives while Ukrainian troops are pushed into defensive positions, often retreating. The situation in Kursk is particularly dire. Although Ukraine still maintains a presence there, the conditions are harsh, writes ANBOUND founder Kung Chan.

Meanwhile, the Russian military has shifted tactics, relying more on light infantry assaults as their heavy armored units have been nearly depleted after nearly three years of combat. These armored units are now primarily used for transport, and large-scale armored charges have become rare. Yet, the question remains: how do Russian and North Korean forces still manage to achieve success with light infantry charges? The answer lies in their ability to regroup undetected. Russian and North Korean troops can assemble, resupply, and then strike when and where they choose, giving them the advantage of surprise and timing.

This is troubling for the Ukrainians, which seems trapped in a defensive, almost mechanical routine, unable to launch effective offensives. If they could identify the enemy’s assembly points and launch preemptive strikes, it would be a game-changing tactic to counter these light infantry assaults.

The Ukrainian military is better suited for offensive operations rather than static defense. Outnumbered by Russian forces, Ukraine can offset this numerical disadvantage only by launching unexpected attacks. Once Ukraine adopts a defensive stance, the balance quickly tilts in Russia’s favor. The current situation in Kursk exemplifies this, that Ukraine’s offensive was met by a successful Russian regrouping and counterattack. The shift from offense to defense has turned the tide, leaving Ukraine in a precarious position.

Ukraine’s greatest challenge now is to strike Russian and North Korean assembly points before they can build a sufficient force for a major offensive. To achieve this, it must use long-range weapons to disrupt the enemy’s preparations. Enhanced intelligence and reconnaissance are essential to identify these assembly points. Given the scale of the offensive, these points are unlikely to be far from the frontlines and should be detectable.

The current passive position of the Ukrainian military may indicate that Western intelligence cooperation is quite limited. Additionally, Ukraine’s own reconnaissance efforts may be lacking, preventing them from identifying Russian and North Korean assembly points in advance. If this issue is not addressed, Ukraine will struggle to defend effectively, continually retreating under the weight of its numerical disadvantage.

Moreover, Ukraine’s ability to integrate Western military resources remains a significant concern. Since 2024, Ukraine has received substantial military aid from the West, including F-16 fighter jets, air defense missiles, and large quantities of ammunition. However, despite these assets, there has been no significant improvement in Ukraine's military performance. This contrasts sharply with President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s optimistic statements when requesting these supplies, in which he expressed confidence that they would turn the tide. Yet, despite the influx of advanced equipment, the battlefield situation has worsened in some areas. This raises doubts about whether Ukraine’s elite personnel, i.e., those best equipped to effectively utilize these resources, have been exhausted or lost. Without these skilled individuals, the integration of new assets becomes much more challenging.

Ultimately, Ukraine has lost its most valuable wartime asset — its elite personnel. This signals a pessimistic outlook. No amount of money or advanced military resources can ensure victory if Ukraine lacks the capability to effectively integrate and deploy them.

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