Donald Trump’s ‘resurrection’ a test for the EU

The former and soon-to-be 47^th President of the United States, Donald J Trump has emerged from a years-long campaign – it goes right back to 2016 – where he has faced impeachment proceedings, multiple investigations, court actions some with eye-watering fines and has been the subject of almost universally hostile media cover, where he was labelled a fascist, a sexual predator, a traitor and a lot more, writes Dick Roche.

Trump entered the 2024 election campaign as a convicted felon running at first against a sitting President and later against a candidate who was subject to very little scrutiny and elevated to something close to sainthood.

Despite all Trump won and won big. The world faces four more years of a President Trump who returns to office more determined than ever to deliver on his ‘America First’ agenda.  

Very significant victories

President-elect Trump not only won a strong majority in the Electoral College but also received a convincing majority in the popular vote. He can with justification see both as conferring a strong mandate. It does not stop there.

The Republican Party will have a clear majority in the next Senate for at least two years. Party control of the Senate gives the President power to focus on his political agenda.

With most seats in the House of Representatives filled the Republican Party also looks set for a majority.  Control of the House would give the Republicans power to initiate spending legislation. It also comes with the power of impeachment, a power that  Democrats were not shy to use.

Donald Trump, despite all the vicissitudes that he faced, many in no small part of his own making, will return to Washington DC on January 20th in a far more powerful position than he was in 2016.

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A Disruptive Novice.

When Trump was elected in 2016 the Republican Party was heavily divided. Many of Republicans in both Houses were hostile to him. The Republican Senate majority leader and the Republican speaker of the House of Representatives were both critics. High-level Republican office holders at federal and state levels made no secret of their disdain.  Former Presidents George H.W Bush and George W Bush did not mask their feelings. Indeed, just months after Trump took up office, George W Bush openly attacked the direction in which the administration was taking the US sounding an alarm about “nationalism distorted into nativism”. While Trump was not named, the target was not hard to discern.

In addition, Trump entered office with a very inexperienced transition team marred by infighting. Shortly after the 2016 elections as his transition team was getting in place, its leader Chris Christie, the Governor of New Jersey was sacked, and his job was passed to the Vice President elect Mike Pence.

Old guard animosity, divided loyalties amongst the Republican members in Congress, the inexperience of the transition team and Trump’s personality and lack of political experience meant that the early months of his presidency in 2017 were ‘bumpy’.  Momentum gathered in the 2016 election campaign was lost. 

Things were not made any easier by the fact that during the first two years of the Presidency, the Mueller investigation into allegations of Russian collusion in the 2016 elections was ongoing.

Things are different this year

Things are very different as the Trump II transition gets underway.  

Since leaving the White House in 2021 Donald Trump has significantly reshaped the Republican Party.

While some disenchanted ‘never Trumper’ Republicans and former staffers canvassed for Vice President Harris their impact, as shown in the voting was limited. Post election 2024 the ‘never Trumpers’ numbers will decline further.

In another positive sign for Trump, President George W Bush who did not endorse Trump during the 2024 election campaign, was one of the first to congratulate his election success. In his statement the former President called the strong turnout in this election “a sign of the health of our republic and the strength of our democratic institutions” a comment seen as a riposte to the suggestion that Trump’s re-election threatened democracy.

When he returns to the White House on January 20th Donald J.Trump does so as a battle-hardened politician with three Presidential elections, two victories and one of the most remarkable turn arounds in US political history under his belt, very different from the man sworn in on the same date eight years previously.   

A speedy return to business

Unlike Europe where the bulk of the administrative machine remains in place when a new government takes office, in the US senior layers in the administration vacate their positions with a departing President.

In all, an incoming US President makes around 4,000 appointments.  Up to 1,200 of these, the most politically sensitive offices, require Senate confirmation.

In  just over two months the President elect must find candidates to fill thousands of political posts ranging from Cabinet positions down to the heads of executive agencies.

After eight tumultuous years Trump is well placed to identify loyalists for elevation in particular to the most important positions.

The President-elect has made it clear that he intends to put his new administration in place quickly. He is in a much better position to do this than he was after the 2016 election.  Not only does Trump enjoy a Senate majority but that majority is ‘dissident free’ putting him in a position to put the people that he wishes to appoint into the most powerful positions without having to compromise on the appointments.

His strong post-election position also affords President Trump an important opportunity outside the executive and legislative branches.

In 2016 Donald Trump promised to reshape the American judiciary. During his term in office, Trump made three hugely consequential appointments to the US Supreme Court and made over 230 appointments in lower courts.

The new Trump administration will again make the elevation of ‘like-minded’ judges a priority. The ‘top prize’ here would be another appointment to the Supreme Court. The age profile of serving Judges could come into play here.  While there is no mandatory retirement age for Judges of the Court, three of the Court’s members will be over 70  by the end of January next, with a fourth reaching 70 by the middle of the year.

With the Republican control of the Senate guaranteed up to the 2026 midterm elections – when all 435 seats in the US House of Representatives and 33 seats in the Senate will be contested – President Trump is in a good position to consolidate the conservative-leaning majority in the highest US Court should any vacancy arise and will undoubtedly continue to ‘seed’ the lower courts with judges who align with his views and political outlook.   

A disaster for Europe?

Within hours of the US media calling the election for Donald Trump editorials and opinion pieces running a full gamut of doom-laden predictions appeared across Europe.  

An eye catching piece in the Guardian labelled the election result a “disaster for Europe” predicting that “Europeans will suffer strategically, economically and politically”  from Trump II policies.

The Financial Times  took the view that “Trump has a mandate to overhaul the US in unimaginably disruptive ways” concluding “there will be no going back from the seismic outcome of America’s 2024 election.”

The Irish Times which reran the Financial Times piece predicted “the relationship between the EU and the US was about to change dramatically” warning of “Ireland’s €54 billion exposure to Trump’s tariff plan”.

Der Spiegel flagged concern about changes in American foreign and security policy that could have negative repercussions for Europe.

Italy’s Corriere della Sera warned of Europe being ill-prepared to confront Trump’s isolationism. The point about Europe being unprepared for Donald Trump’s victory was reflected in many other articles which poses the question why?

Throughout the US election campaign, a victory for Donald Trump was always on the cards. Even before his disastrous performance in the first Presidential debate Joe Biden was only very slightly ahead of Trump in the polls. When President Biden withdrew from the election Donald Trump was ahead in the polls in Pennsylvania, Nevada, Wisconsin, Michigan, North Carolina, Georgia and Arizona, the critical ‘swing states’. 

After Kamala Harris entered the campaign in July the dial moved in her direction. The Vice President enjoyed something of a sugar high in polling through August.  On Labour Day Harris was ahead of Trump in all the swing states except North Carolina. As September drew to a conclusion Trump also moved into the lead in Georgia and Arizona.

Through October the differences between the two candidates in polling in all seven swing states were razor thin but the direction of travel was clear – the dial was moving back towards Trump. By the end of the month Harris held thin leads in Wisconsin and Michigan. Trump was ahead in the rest. On election day Trump took all seven swing states.

Many European politicians and commentators, for a host of reasons, did not want to contemplate any possibility of a return of Donald Trump. His personality, behaviour and the policies he espoused overruled objective analysis. The chose not to see his ‘resurrection coming’.

Time to turn the page

There is no doubt that the policies that President-elect Trump has outlined could have very real implications for Europe. Like it or not the EU must now deal with President Trump.

At present, rather disturbingly,  there is no indication of either a consensus on or a finalised strategy on how the EU should deal with the Trump II administration. 

With less than eleven weeks to run until President Trump’s second inauguration, Europe is in a challenging position. France and Germany are focused on domestic politics. There are fundamental divisions within the EU Council particularly on Ukraine and a new European Commission is in formation.

Challenging as the position is, if the EU can turn the page on the groupthink that is central to virtually every discussion on Donald Trump, see the 47^th President as a quintessentially transactional figure rather than as some kind of devil incarnate while establishing, and holding, a EU common position on key issues without Member States ‘peeling off’ to pursue individual interests EU and the US will make it through the next 50 months.

Dick Roche is a former Irish minister for European affairs and a former minister for the environment.

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