German state vote tests support for Berlin's crisis management

Sunday's (9 October) vote in Lower Saxony will be a measure of support for Chancellor Olaf Scholz and his ruling coalition in crisis management. It seeks to avoid energy shortages and escalating the Ukraine war.

In the economically strong swing state of 8 million people, where Volkswagen is headquartered, national issues like the highest levels of inflation in decades have dominated campaign. Security was the focus of Saturday's sabotage, which halted rail traffic between Lower Saxony (and elsewhere in northern Germany).

According to polls, Scholz's centreleft Social Democrats (SPD), were ranked between 31% - 33% in the latest polls. This suggests that they could land less than the 37% of 2017 but still hold power partly due to the popularity and support of incumbent premier Stephan Weil.

This would be a boost to the SPD, which has lost two regional votes to the conservatives of former Chancellor Angela Angela Merkel. It is currently at 18-20% national level and scored 25.7% in 2021's federal election.

The election, which is the last regional vote of the year, will likely deliver mixed messages on support for the federal three-way "traffic lights" coalition. This is due to the diverging fortunes and the two junior partners.

After voting closes at six pm on Sunday night, exit polls will be made public before official results are announced at 6:30 p.m.

The Greens, whose ministers have been the most popular in Scholz's cabinet are on track for doubling their vote share to between 16%- 19%. This could allow the SPD to abandon their local coalition partners, the conservatives, and join forces with the environmentalist party.

According to polls, the FDP, which is not a natural match with the Greens or SPD, may fail to reach the 5% threshold to be admitted to parliament.

Philipp Koeker, a political scientist at the University of Hanover (the capital of Lower Saxony), said that the party is often perceived as putting a halt to popular government programmes because it focuses on fiscal responsibility.

Koeker stated that the FDP could be a more difficult partner to the coalition if it fails to enter the state legislature.

The far-right Alternative for Germany is expected to almost double its vote share to 10% in Lower Saxony. This is a result of a national surge as it gains frustration with the political system's handling of the economic crisis.

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