Designated terrorist Entity in Iran boosts military ties with 'Pro-Western' Armenia

Over the past year, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), Iran’s extraterritorial operations tool, designated by the US as a terrorist organization, has intensified its subversive activities across Europe. European security agencies have reported an uptick in covert operations linked to the IRGC and Iran’s Ministry of Intelligence, including cyberattacks, surveillance, assassination plots, and the use of criminal networks for proxy actions. One notable example is a cyberattack in Sweden, attributed to an IRGC-affiliated group, which hacked a mass texting platform to send threatening messages following Quran-burning incidents. This incident underscored Iran's willingness to retaliate via digital channels far beyond its borders.

The IRGC has used criminal gangs to conduct surveillance and potentially plan attacks against Iranian dissidents living in Europe. The International Centre for Counter-Terrorism (ICCT) reported that Tehran increasingly leverages these networks to maintain plausible deniability while continuing operations that would otherwise directly implicate the regime.

At the same time, the IRGC is behind another threat to the EU. In April it transferred new long-range missiles to proxy groups in Iraq. According to Reuters, the deliveries from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’ air force include surface-to-surface missiles that could reach as far as Europe, as well as shorter-range Quds 351 cruise and Jamal 69 ballistic missiles, The Times reported, citing regional intelligence sources involved in monitoring the Iran-Iraq border. A source cited by The Times said the new long-range models had never before been given to Iraq’s separatist pro-Iranian militias.

While transferring the missiles, the IRGC also conducted joint military drills with the Armenian military amid tensions over Iran's nuclear program and Azerbaijan’s mediation between Israel and Turkey in Syria. Tehran sees this mediation as a threat to its regional hegemony in the Caucasus and Greater Middle East. It therefore seeks leverage or a tool to be used against Baku, which is gradually strengthening its regional standing due to its close relations with Jerusalem and Ankara.

Another initiative, which Tehran perceives as a threat, is adding Azerbaijan to the Abraham Accords framework. This will greatly enhance relations between the US and Azerbaijan, following obvious Israeli interest. This is why, according to the Cradle “As Israel and the US threaten Iran from the south and Ankara and Baku make strategic gains to the north, Tehran is signalling that it will not tolerate encroachment” in the region.  

Armenia is a perfect tool for the cause, as it is right now demonstrating transition from the Russian sphere of control to the Western one. But in fact, Yerevan’s moves prove that it is actively seeking more ties with Tehran. They have a long history—the Israeli Alma Institute, which is focused on threats to Israel, reported in 2023 that Armenia functions as a transit point in the Islamic Republic’s air corridor route to Syria and Lebanon. The report said Iran uses Armenia to facilitate the IRGC’s delivery of military equipment to Syria and then to Lebanon, underlining that the Iranian effort in both arenas works against Israel.

Last summer, Iran and Armenia signed a major arms deal worth $500 million. According to the Iran International TV channel, Tehran promised to supply Yerevan with drones (Shahed 136, Shahed 129, Shahed 197, Mohajer), and air defence missile systems (3rd Khordad, Majid, 15th Khordad, and Arman). Armenia’s defence budget in 2024 was set at only $1.4 billion; to compensate for the shipments, Yerevan agreed to establish Iranian bases on Armenian soil.

Later, Iranian ambassador to Yerevan, Mehdi Sobhani announced that "Iran has planned cooperation with Armenia amounting to approximately $3 billion, and we are confident that we will move in that direction”. He added that Tehran will always support Yerevan.

Sobhani is a former ambassador to Syria, where he coordinated the activities of Lebanese Hezbollah, the Assad regime, and the IRGC. His appointment to Armenia underscores the military importance of Yerevan to Tehran.

The joint military drills with the Armenian military were held on April 8-10th. The commanding officer for Iran was Brigadier General Valiollah Madani, deputy commander of the IRGC Ground Forces. He headed the 31st Ashura Operational Division, a prominent unit within Iran's Revolutionary Guards. It is stationed in Tabriz, the cultural capital of the Southern Azerbaijanis, the most discriminated minority in Iran. In the case of war with Azerbaijan, this IRGC division will be the first to attack.

The Iranian regime loves symbolic gestures. These drills are a show of force, intended to suggest that Tehran could obstruct a potential peace agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan, which is the major regional objective of Baku.

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