#Brexit – ‘It is increasingly likely that the United Kingdom will leave the European Union without a deal on 12 April’

Today’s (25 March) statement and briefing on EU preparedness for a ‘no deal’ Brexit outlined the measures taken to cope in the event of the UK leaving the EU without a deal on the new exit date of  12 April. It is a clear signal to all involved that the EU thinks a cliff-edge Brexit is a real possibility, writes Catherine Feore.

The EU's 'no-deal' preparedness and contingency work

The EU flagged up its extensive preparation for a ‘no deal’ scenario. The Commission has published three Communications, 90 stakeholder preparedness notices covering every sector of the economy and has adopted 19 legislative proposals, with only two awaiting the Council and European Parliament’s seal of approval by the end of March.

At the national level, the Commission has met with each member state’s Brexit task force on the measures needed, as well as with a wide range of stakeholders, from trade unions to businesses. In order to help citizens and businesses there will be a hotline (00 800 6 7 8 9 10 11) in every country, as well as a web forum to answer questions. Experts will be on hand to provide guidance.

An area of particular concern for the Commission is SMEs who trade mainly with the UK and have little or no experience of trading with third countries.

Overall, the Commission said that it was satisfied that countries – particularly those most effected – had taken the necessary measures for a ‘no deal’ exit. The official underlined that the EU's contingency measures could not and would not mitigate the overall impact of no deal, or replicate the favourable terms of a transition period, as provided for in the Withdrawal Agreement.

Another official was keen to highlight that the contingency measures are temporary in nature, limited in scope and were adopted unilaterally by the EU and without negotiation with the UK. The implication being that what the EU giveth, it can also taketh away. The official made it clear that these were not ‘mini-deals’ as some British politicians have suggested, but measures adopted by the EU-27 and entirely at their discretion.

The most exposed countries – the Netherlands, France and Germany – are advanced in their preparations. The one country where questions remain is Ireland, where both Ireland and the UK have said they are committed to maintaining a soft border.

Over the weekend Irish Taoiseach Leo Varadkar said that plans to avoid a hard border are “rough and very preliminary”. Nevertheless, the Irish expect the UK to stand by its commitments to maintain a soft border and to respect Ireland’s membership of the Single Market. An EC official said that they were working closely with Ireland and expected that the UK would respect the spirit and the letter of the Good Friday Agreement.

On the failure to pay a financial settlement, in a ‘no deal’ scenario, the Commission was clear that the budget was agreed on a multi-annual basis in 2014. While the budget may need to be amended, the EU would expect the UK to respect payments that had been made.

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