The struggle for #Ukraine

Four years since the start of its ‘Euromaidan’ revolution, Ukraine is fighting for its survival as an independent and viable state. This report assesses the country's struggle to hold together and resist Russia’s interference and pressure, but it also examines the related internal contest to determine the political, institutional and civic future of Ukraine write Timothy Ash, Janet Gunn, John Lough, Orysia Lutsevych, James Nixey, James Sherr and Kataryna Wolczuk of Chatham House (The Royal Institute of International Affairs).

Much of what Ukraine has achieved is susceptible to reversal, and underlying political conditions are far from healthy. Ukraine’s core security objectives depend on national cohesion, wise allocation of resources and a long-term commitment by state and society alike. It is an illusion to believe that diplomatic formulas alone will diminish Russia’s determination to dominate Ukraine and rid it of meaningful Western influence. The West’s goal must be to ensure that Ukraine has the capacity to preserve its independence and territorial integrity, irrespective of Russian wishes or intentions.

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The conclusion of the EU’s Association Agreement offers the promise of a sea-change in Ukraine’s relations with Europe. The EU has an unprecedented political mandate for driving reforms forward in Ukraine but it has been too timid to use it, while many members of the Ukrainian political elite still regard reforms as optional. The EU should maintain strong conditionality and rely on tailored, flexible and longer-term programmes.

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Basic macroeconomic stability has been achieved. The next challenge is to enhance the business environment, unlock the potential of the land market and support investment to deliver much-needed economic growth. Land reform is badly needed and further reform of Ukraine's state-owned enterprises is essential.

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Decentralization has devolved significant authority and tax-raising powers to local governments, but reform of the constitutional division of powers, institutional capacity and the media has barely begun. Building public trust is of critical importance and responsibility for this lies first and foremost with the Ukrainian political class.

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The dynamism of civil society continues to depend on a small cohort of activists and professional civil society organizations (CSOs). There is a sense that CSOs are disconnected from local communities, and that activity on behalf of citizens rather than with citizens prevails. International donors should fund projects that build civic support networks: housing associations, farmers’ unions, credit unions, teachers’ associations and business associations. This would make decentralization of power more effective and local government more accountable.

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Ukraine has made significant progress in reducing corruption. However, it has yet to eliminate the fatalistic acceptance by much of society of endemic corruption and a concentration of ownership and influence that has prevented the development of the rule of law. Western countries must sustain pressure for judicial reform and the prosecution of high-level officials who have abused their office.

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