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#DRC - Europe needs a Congolese reality check

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As instability drags the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) and its neighbours further towards the abyss, two of the international bodies working to stabilise Africa’s second-largest country are finally realising the Congolese regime has no intention of working with them.

Last week, explosive revelations in the French press suggested a contentious standoff between the DRC’s unelected president Joseph Kabila (pictured) and his counterparts within the Southern African Development Community (SADC). Faced with withering criticism from his fellow African leaders and demands to hold overdue elections at the bloc’s summit in Luanda, Angola last month, a defensive Kabila allegedly retorted by asking whether he was on trial.

 Kabila’s worsening position in relation to the SADC is not occurring in a vacuum. Just days after the Congolese president engaged in rhetorical games in Luanda, his popular rival Moïse Katumbi traveled to Kigali and met with Congolese supporters and journalists from across the border.

Katumbi remains exiled on account of criminal charges widely seen as politically motivated. That has not prevented him from bringing together disparate members of the Congolese opposition in South Africa, or his movement from rallying support in Kinshasa. Katumbi’s public spotlight and political résumé date back to his time as the former governor of resource-rich Katanga province. He remains the frontrunner in the presidential race, polling more than ten points ahead of his closest competitor in spite of his exile.

The showdown with the SADC in Angola came just a few weeks after Kabila and his officials glibly skipped a major donor conference organised in Geneva by the European Commission, United Nations and Dutch government. Last month’s conference in Geneva was a golden opportunity for Kabila to secure additional international support to alleviate the hunger, conflict, and violence impacting much of his country. Instead, the Congolese leader complained the donors trying to help his war-torn country were giving him and the nation he leads a “bad image.”

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 The government’s information minister, Lambert Mende, went so far as to accuse the organisers of fraud: “We have a group of UN bureaucrats who are trying to mislead the international community on the real situation of our people. We need humanitarian aid, but not of that order.”

 The co-organisers hoped to raise $1.7 billion to address the country’s ongoing humanitarian crises when they convened on April 13. Instead, the conference raised just $530 million. These are of course not the only funds the EU has dedicated to the DRC of late. In March, the Commission pledged a total €60 million in emergency assistance, including €10.9 million for neighbouring countries such as Tanzania, Rwanda and the Republic of Congo to support the hundreds of thousands of Congolese refugees seeking refuge across the DRC’s borders.

Unfortunately for Kabila and his cadres, the multiple crises buffetting the DRC are quite plain to see.  According to the United Nations 2018 Humanitarian Response Plan, 16.6 million people are being negatively impacted by the crisis in Congo, with 13 million people in need of immediate assistance. Over 5.1 million people have been displaced, with 630,000 having fled to neighbouring countries. The United Nations has declared the situation a Level 3 emergency – its highest level.

 At this point, the European Union and the United Nations need to accept that money and good intentions are not enough to calm the situation in Africa’s most dangerous conflict zone. Kabila is not just an unhelpful partner in calming the DRC, but an active catalyst for its conflicts and crises. Kabila’s term as president expired in 2016. He is currently clinging to power without a democratic mandate or constitutional legitimacy.By breaking numerous promises to hold elections, he has exacerbated the breakdown of the Congolese central government’s authority. The harsh reality is that it will be impossible to solve the DRC’s humanitarian crisis until the country’s political issues are dealt with, and dealing with them requires Kabila step aside. His refusal to hold an election since 2016 has led to a wave of anti-government protests that have turned deadly in recent months.

All the while, restive areas away from the capital are riven by conflicts between government forces and the 120 insurgent groups operating in just the provinces of North and South Kivu. As Moïse Katumbi made clear to the SADC: ““Congo isn’t about one man. If President Kabila leaves power, the country will have stability. He is the one causing problems at the moment.”

The international response, and especially the European response, has not gone nearly far enough to impact the Kabila government significantly. Since the DRC electoral calendar first came unstuck in December 2016, the European Council began targeting high-ranking individuals within the regime and the security forces. Sanctions on the same individuals have also been implemented by Switzerland. Fewer than two dozen individuals have been sanctioned thus far, and the EU has yet to go after the corrupt and cronyistic business empire that enriches the Kabila family.

 The tepid pushback against Kabila’s strategy of “glissement” has left many Congolese disillusioned. A poll commissioned last December found eight in ten Congolese hold an unfavourable opinion of President Kabila, and yet that same poll also found that seven in ten doubted an election or democratic vote would replace Kabila.Katumbi, for his part, has promised to defy the charges facing him and return to the DRC as soon as the vote looks certain to take place. The opposition figure has said that he is willing to risk his personal safety to help change the political situation in the DRC and help his fellow Congolese.

Whether or not that happens may come down in large part for the European Union. Will the EU and its member countries manage to exert maximal financial and diplomatic pressure on the Kabila regime? The fate of central Africa may ultimately depend on the answer to that question.

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