New research on foreign policies of #Armenia and #Azerbaijan 

The relative disengagement of the West – especially the US – from the South Caucasus from 2008 onwards has brought both Armenia and Azerbaijan closer to Russia. Armenia has sacrificed its foreign policy balance for the sake of hard security, yet its security has deteriorated.

The country's previous leaders have failed to gauge the extent to which Russia’s growing assertiveness in the region is altering the supposed ‘strategic partnership’ between Yerevan and Moscow. Azerbaijan's leadership mistakenly thought that the country could benefit from Russia’s increased power projection in the South Caucasus and change Moscow's  attitude to the Nagorny Karabakh conflict to Azerbaijan’s advantage.

However, joining Russian-led economic and military alliances for this purpose would be a further error. The new Armenian government has an opportunity to live up to the country’s long-declared aspiration for a multi-vector foreign policy. Decision-making and security planning should change, as democratic governance and smart foreign policymaking are now slowly being acknowledged as important components of security. Azerbaijan’s leadership is heavily dependent on the price of oil. Economic collapse, should it occur, has the potential to pitch the country into chaos, further boosting Russia’s influence.

To achieve domestic stability, reduce dependence on Russia and regain international respect, Azerbaijan needs to implement genuine political and economic reforms. The West can help Armenia and Azerbaijan strengthen their position by supporting policy, economic and institutional reforms, and by adopting a more nuanced approach to diplomacy in the region.

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