#Varadkar set for defeat in Irish general election

Republic of Ireland Prime Minister (Taoiseach) Leo Varadkar (pictured) looks set to return to the opposition benches in The Dáil after the people of Ireland cast their votes in the Irish General Election on Saturday 8 February, writes Ken Murray.

A series of opinion polls which show a significant fall in support for his ruling Fine Gael Party and an upsurge in popularity for the Fianna Fáil and Sinn Féin parties, indicate that Varadkar’s days as PM are all but over after almost three years in the top job.

An Ipsos/Irish Times poll published on 3 February caused shock and surprise when it revealed that left-wing Irish republican party Sinn Fein, the political wing of the one-time IRA, is now the most popular political party with Irish voters.

With 25% of the electorate showing a preference for Sinn Fein, the party has surpassed Fianna Fáil on 23% with Varadkar’s Fine Gael trailing in third place on 20%.

Reacting to recent poll figures, an upbeat Leo Varadkar told Andrew Marr on BBC TV that “It's looking like a very tight election.

"We're a bit behind but everything is within the margin of error of three per cent, so this election is all to play for.”

The slide in support for Fine Gael comes following a series of gaffes by members of his parliamentary party which have come in for severe criticism from the public and the media.

Maria Bailey TD was ridiculed for intending to make an opportunistic insurance claim after falling off a swing in a Dublin hotel on a ‘girls night out’ and was subsequently de-selected while junior Minister Darragh Murphy was forced to resign his seat after it emerged he was drawing a salary as a TD from the Dublin parliament while simultaneously working for the European People’s Party in Brussels!

Varadkar’s Justice Minister Charlie Flanagan then found himself in trouble when he planned, but was forced to cancel, a commemoration of the ruthless British ‘Black and Tan’ police force which brutally killed scores of people during the Irish War of Independence which ended in 1921.

Then to make matters worse for Varadkar, Fine Gael Senator Catherine Noone caused uproar when she was recorded by a reporter describing her leader as being “autistic” and “on the spectrum”!

Coupled with a hospital waiting list and homeless crisis, ironically, these gaffes have come at a time when the Irish economy is booming and employment is at its highest level ever.

Despite the rise in popularity of the middle-class maligned Sinn Fein and its past links to terrorism, Leo Varadkar has insisted that going in to Government with them is a complete non-runner.

"Sinn Féin, in our view, is soft on crime and also high on tax. [Their] Proposals to tax business, pensions, incomes, wealth, property, you name it, to the tune of four billion euro and that would be enormously damaging for the Irish economy, for people's jobs and incomes and livelihoods and businesses,” he told Andrew Marr.

While Sinn Fein is running less candidates than the two major parties, one possible outcome is that Fianna Fáil Leader Micheál Martin will be elected Taoiseach and is likely to enter in to a ‘confidence and supply’ arrangement with Leo Varadkar’s Fine Gael.

However, a multi-coloured coalition featuring smaller parties can not be ruled out.

The counting of votes across 38 of the 39 constituencies in Ireland’s P.R. system for 160 seats will take place on Sunday February 9th.

Voting and counting in the Tipperary Constituency is likely to take place in early March owing to the death of a declared candidate which has resulted in contestants having to re-submit nomination papers.

ENDS:

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