What Kashmiris think about their future: Optimism vs conflict

Although violence and conflict in a region may have negative impact on feelings of safety, well-being, and future prospect schools it still appears that people in Kashmir region in both India and Pakistan seem to be optimistic. Past research in the domain of future prospects and well-being in ethnopolitical conflict zones where residents face violence usually are pessimistic and demonstrate low sense of well-being. In a first of its kind survey that examined data from both sides of LOC in Kashmir region results demonstrate that majority of the population is optimistic about their future. Additionally, they all felt that they were better off than their previous generation. In the backdrop of COVID, where most of peaceful world seems rather gloomy and pessimistic but the conflict zone of Kashmir appear rather optimistic and happy, write Professor Dheeraj Sharma, Director, Indian Institute of Management-Rohtak and Professor (on leave), Indian Institute of Management-Ahmedabad, India and Professor Farrah Arif, Faculty, Lahore University of Management Sciences, Lahore, Pakistan.

The Kashmir region has seen conflict since 1947 as both India and Pakistan have been laying claim to the territory. The approximately 225,000 square kilometre region has seven distinct entities. There are two entities controlled by Pakistan, namely, Pakistani Kashmir (Called as Azad Kashmir by Pakistanis and Pakistan Occupied Kashmir by Indians) and Gilgit-Baltistan (Formerly Northern Areas). Government of Pakistan passed an order in 2009 that resulted in creation of Gilgit-Baltistan Legislative Assembly and Gilgit-Baltistan Council. Both these areas are more nearly hundred percent Muslim. With Gilgit-Baltistan being nearly three quarters Shia till 1980s. There are three areas controlled by India, namely, Ladakh region, Kashmir Valley (called Kashmir by Indians and Indian Occupied Kashmir by Pakistanis), and Jammu region. Ladakh region has non-Muslim majority (Hindus and Buddhists make up about 53% of the population) but has 45% Muslims most whom are Shias. Since, 2019 it is now a union territory of India on the basis of act of Indian parliament. Jammu region has nearly two third of Hindu population. Kashmir valley has 97% of Muslim population. Jammu region and Kashmir valley are also now union territories of India on the basis of act of Indian parliament. Two entities in this region are controlled by China. The Akshi Chin region and small area that is north of Uprang Zilga River in Gilgit-Baltistan province that border with Xinjiang province of China has been under the control of China since early 1960s. Sino-Pakistan Frontier Agreement and Sino-Pak Boundary Agreement of 1963 resulted in exchange of land between Pakistan and China north of Uprang Zilga river. Akshai Chin region is now being controlled by China since Indo-China war of 1962. The religious distinctiveness, cultural complexity, and regional complexity make this a very unique geo-political issue.

The region has seen significant violence resulting in death of more than 40,000 residents in last few decades. LoC is usually a very tense place and with Chinese adventure in the eastern sector this region has become even more complex and conflicted.

This region has had major armed conflict in 1948, 1962, 1965, 1971, and 1999. Furthermore, the region continues to experience turmoil on regular basis due to cross-border hostilities between India, Pakistan and China. Two weeks ago there was a conflict between India and China resulting in loss of more than 20 Indian troops and more than 35 Chinese troops.

Consequently, in an attempt to understand the hopes of the residents of this region we undertook a survey to understand what did the resident of this region think about their current state in terms of health, education, and infrastructure. A survey was conducted on a randomly selected sample of 1425 individuals residing in region of Kashmir both on Indian and Pakistani side. The survey was conducted in the prevailing COVID situation in different location. A total of 396 responses were collected from Pakistan side of Kashmir and Gilgit Baltistan. Also, 1029 responses were collected from Indian side of Kashmir, Jammu, and Ladakh.

It is interesting to note that most of the residents feel that they are better off than their previous generation in terms of health, education, and infrastructure. Also, they are optimistic about their future. Significant percentage of residents of this regions hope to migrate to other part of the countries for better future of their children. However, it is evident from the results of the survey that their trust in the government is relatively low. The resident of this regions feel that while their expectation have not been met but still hope for a better tomorrow. Significant percentages of residents feel that people in other parts of the country are better off than them in terms of health, infrastructure, and educational facilities. This may probably be the reason for them to contemplate migration to other parts of the region to avail better facilities. Overall, the most interesting outcome of the survey is the resident of the region are generally happy and now further efforts are needed from the government to augment the health, educational, and infrastructure facilities to further elevate the happiness and well-being in the region.

*The view expressed in the article are personal

Share this article: