Top academic questions 'glorious success' of plain packaging of #tobacco products

Speaking in Brussels on Thursday (7 December), Professor Sinclair Davidson described Australia’s experimentation with plain packaging as a “fiasco”.

Some had claimed that such a ban would curb smoking prevalence but he says there is “no noticeable effect.”

His comments come a week after the first anniversary (1 December) of the Australian legislation coming into effect.

The move has since been followed by several EU member states.

In Europe, plain packaging was fully implemented from January this year in France and in May in the UK. All packs will be plain in Ireland from September 2018.

A number of other European governments have adopted or are considering plain packaging.

The aim is to replace branded packs with boxes that are indistinguishable from each other bar the brand name on the packet in standard typeface, colour and size.

The UK was only the second country in the world to pass legislation on standardised packaging after Australia in 2012.

The regulations on standardised packaging are supposed to reduce the appeal and uptake of smoking   but tobacco companies and campaigners claim that the move infringes their human and intellectual property rights.

But Davidson, who is visiting Europe from his home in Australia, told a debate that plain packaging had “not had the desired effect” and went on to urge European governments and the Commission to “distance themselves from a policy that represents the opposite of good governance.”

He also hit out at the “hysterical reaction” to those, such as himself, who had questioned the accuracy and efficacy of studies which had paved the way for  tobacco products legislation.

He said, “We are sometimes portrayed as being in the pay of the tobacco companies but, certainly in my case, I can assure you nothing could be further from the truth.”

Smokers represent 26% of the EU's population, or 100 million adult citizens in Europe.

There have also been calls from public health lobbyists to require other products to be sold in standardized packaging, including alcohol, children’s toys, computer games and fast food. These calls have been predicated on the apparent “success” of the Australian tobacco plain packaging experiment.

But Prof. Davidson says that  “by stigmatizing the product, the Australian government is also targeting the user”, adding: “Plain packs are unlikely to deter people from smoking but the impact on consumer choice could be significant because some brands will almost certainly disappear from the market.”

He said was “no evidence whatsoever” that the ban in Australia had had “any impact at all” on the habits of 14-to-17-year-olds, adding: “The government has tried this approach before, on petrol prices, but its evidence then was skewed as it is how. This suggests to me that that governments will use the statistical ignorance of the population to try to get away with downright lies. I say, look at the evidence because, if you do, you will see that, here, the evidence has been cooked.”

He said: “Tobacco is a legal product. The law should not impose excessive regulations on consumers who know the health risks and don’t need this type of finger-wagging measure.”

Davidson is professor of Institutional Economics, Finance and Marketing at RMIT University, senior fellow at the Institute of Public Affairs and academic fellow at the Australian Taxpayers’ Alliance.

Challenging “the stated claims of the public health lobby in general” he that the evidence “is not consistent with the stated aims of the plain packaging policy”.

He said that the Australian plain packaging experiment has been successful seems to be “commonly accepted knowledge.”

He cited a Hastings and Moodie report which states:  “Plain packaging in Australia has been a casebook example of effective tobacco control – a policy measure driven by evidence, carefully designed and implemented, and now rigorously assessed.”

Disputing this, Davidson declared: “Contrary to Hastings and Moodie I can demonstrate, using evidence-based policy principles, that that assessment (to-date) has not been rigorous.”

He added: “Data collected by the Australian government  shows there is, in fact, no evidence that plain packaging leads to a decline in smoking prevalence. There were as many smokers in Australia in 2016 as in 2013.”

Claims about the apparent success of the scheme had relied on data drawn from the Australian National Plain Packaging Survey.

But, on this, he told a packed audience: “We find that the three key papers demonstrating the efficacy of the plain packaging policy introduced in Australia in 2012 suffer from inconsistencies and methodological differences. The results are not consistent across the three papers and are not robust to small changes in method choice. In particular, we found that model fit is invariably poor.”

He added: “We conclude from this that, contrary to the stated claims of the authors of those papers and the public health lobby in general, that the evidence is not consistent with the stated aims of the plain packaging policy.”

Urging European governments to take note of the outcome of plain packaging in Australia, he said, “Governments and the European Commission should distance themselves from a policy that represents the opposite of good governance. It doesn’t achieve its goal, it’s disproportionate, unjustified and unnecessary.”

He added: “Mandatory ugly packaging, sometimes called ‘plain’, is yet another attempt to deormalize a legal product and stigmatize those who consume it.

“Bullying smokers to quit is odious and futile. Consumers are already aware of the health risks associated with smoking.It’s time for governments and health lobbies to stop using smokers as laboratory mice for their extreme policies.”

His comments are backed by Forest EU, a European smokers’ group which organised the event and has called for “balance and real evidence-based policy discussion” on the debate about tobacco regulation.

It also welcomes the creation by the Commission of a “Subsidiarity and Proportionality Task Force” and calls for the Tobacco Products Directive to be “critically assessed”.

In his state of the union speech, European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker called on the EU not to “meddle in the everyday lives of European citizens by regulating every aspect”.

Forest EU states,”EU countries are already among the most regulated places on earth in which to smoke. Yet, because of the Tobacco Product Directive, adult smokers are subject to a series of punitive measures that infantilize them as consumers and are likely to make no difference to public health.”

In June, Forest EU published its 2017 Manifesto entitled ‘#SmokersAreCitizensToo’. The comprehensive, independent document looks through the policies affecting smokers in Europe and considers what alternative policies European governments and EU institutions should pursue.The ten-page document tackles a number of issues like smoking bans, plain packaging, excessive taxation and youth education.