A pragmatic path to ending smoking in Europe

Europe stands at a critical crossroads in the battle against smoking. A landmark report from the European Policy Innovation Council (EPIC) makes a powerful case for rethinking traditional tobacco control policies. Instead of pursuing an  prohibitionist path, the report urges the European Union to embrace innovation and pragmatic harm reduction strategies to save millions of lives, while preserving economic vitality.

Published in early 2025, EPIC’s 'The End of Smoking? How Europe Can Save Millions of Lives while Boosting Economic Growth ' findings align with a growing chorus of experts and institutions advocating for science-based, consumer-friendly approaches to nicotine use. The report highlights that Europe’s current war on tobacco, marked by stringent bans and high taxes, has done little to eliminate smoking. Millions still smoke, not out of ignorance, but due to addiction and lack of appealing alternatives. Regulation alone, EPIC argues, cannot erase deeply ingrained behaviours.

Issues raised in EPIC's report:

“The real question is whether public policy will finally acknowledge reality – embracing innovation, reducing harm, and treating smokers as individuals to be supported rather than consumers who deserve punishment”.

“As Europe grapples with a complicated economic and geopolitical outlook, understanding the interplay between demand and regulation is crucial to crafting policies that are both economically sound and public health-orientated.”

“Instead of conceding the industry to foreign competitors and illicit markets, the EU has the chance to harness innovation, ensuring economic growth aligns with health objectives.”

What’s needed is a shift toward harm reduction—making safer nicotine products like heated tobacco, nicotine pouches, and e-cigarettes accessible and affordable. Sweden’s success story with snus, a smokeless tobacco product, underscores this strategy. With one of the lowest smoking rates in Europe and declining rates of lung cancer, Sweden proves that when smokers are given viable alternatives, public health wins.

The success of Sweden in reducing smoking rates was based on embracing harm reduction as part of its tobacco control and broader public health strategies, with access to regulated alternatives for smokers wanting to quit. This is not the result of prohibitions or severe regulations but the fact that Swedish policymakers endorse harm reduction methods and allow adult consumers to choose less risky alternatives to conventional cigarettes.

The economic case is just as compelling. The nicotine sector contributes over €215 billion to EU GDP—more than the telecom and textile sectors combined—and employs more than 1.6 million people. Taxes on tobacco generate €111.1 billion annually, funding public services from defence to healthcare. Overregulating or banning safer alternatives risks not only pushing consumers to unregulated black markets but also triggering economic instability and job losses.

As the EU reviews its Tobacco Products Directive (TPD) and Tobacco Tax Directive (TED), EPIC warns against blanket restrictions that fail to distinguish between high-risk and low-risk products. A continuum of risk approach, where regulations are proportionate to harm, is critical. Countries like the UK, Japan, and Sweden have already seen smoking rates drop through policies that support innovation and harm reduction. The EU can—and must—follow suit.

There are examples of multiple countries where the prohibition on vaping has already carried negative implications or will do so in the future.

One of them is India, which signed the WHO FCTC in 2003 and banned vaping in 2019. Prohibition in the country has been a major failure, driving consumers to the black market and putting them at risk of consuming riskier products than the ones available on the legal market.

International experts and public health advocates reinforce the urgency of aligning regulation with evidence and economic reality.

Professor Gerry Stimson, Emeritus Professor at Imperial College London and advocate for harm reduction, emphasises:

“Although nicotine is addictive, it is almost harmless to health. It is the tobacco smoke that is harmful. E-cigarettes have negligible risk to health.”

Stimson has been a leading figure in promoting safer nicotine products as alternatives to smoking.

Professor Ann McNeill, Professor of Tobacco Addiction at King's College London, asserts:

“E-cigarettes are around 95% less harmful than smoking."

McNeill has extensively researched tobacco control and was the lead author of a 2015 report commissioned by Public Health England, which concluded the significantly reduced harm of e-cigarettes compared to traditional smoking.

Dr. Maciej Goniewicz, Tobacco Control Researcher at Roswell Park Comprehensive Cancer Center, notes:

“E-cigarettes are a more attractive product for smokers. They're still inhaling nicotine, but it's safer. They don't see it as a medication.”

Goniewicz highlights the potential of e-cigarettes as effective smoking cessation tools due to their appeal to smokers seeking alternatives.

These expert insights underscore the importance of harm reduction approaches in tobacco control, advocating for the adoption of safer nicotine delivery systems to reduce smoking-related health risks.

The choice is clear: either persist with outdated policies that have failed or innovate boldly. By fostering alternatives, supporting regulated markets, and embracing harm reduction, Europe can end smoking as a public health crisis while strengthening its economic resilience for the decades ahead.

Harm reduction: A public health imperative

The principle of harm reduction is already widely accepted in other areas of public health, from needle exchange programmes for drug users to alcohol moderation campaigns. Yet when it comes to tobacco, the EU continues to pursue a punitive model that disregards the reality of addiction and ignores the potential of innovation. Rather than recognising that many smokers are unwilling or unable to quit, the current regulatory stance limits their access to lower-risk alternatives. EPIC’s report calls for a rational shift: promote less harmful products, regulate them proportionately, and educate the public on their relative risks. Only then can smoking prevalence be effectively reduced across the EU.

Economic resilience through innovation

Europe’s economic landscape is under pressure from inflation, international competition, and a need for renewed investment. The tobacco industry, especially its new-generation products, offers a resilient source of tax revenue, employment, and exports. The EPIC report highlights that over €111 billion in tax revenues stem from tobacco products annually. Removing or overregulating these products risks undermining national budgets. Worse still, failing to accommodate safer alternatives may shift consumer demand toward illicit markets, where safety, quality, and taxation are compromised. Instead, supporting the regulated transition to reduced-risk products could ensure a steady tax base, safeguard jobs, and enhance public health outcomes.

Global lessons: The UK, Japan, and Sweden

The success stories from other nations serve as powerful evidence in favour of a balanced, harm-reduction-based strategy. The UK’s 'Swap to Stop' campaign integrates vaping into smoking cessation, resulting in a steady decline in smoking rates. Japan has used differential tax policies to push smokers away from cigarettes and toward heated tobacco products, cutting cigarette sales by more than 40% in just a few years. Sweden, with its longstanding embrace of snus and now nicotine pouches, has already reached the EU’s 2040 smoke-free goal—16 years ahead of schedule. These models demonstrate that well-regulated, lower-risk alternatives can succeed where prohibition fails.

The regulatory crossroads

The EU is supposedly revising both the Tobacco Products Directive (TPD) and the Tobacco Tax Directive (TED)—key pieces of legislation that will shape the future of nicotine regulation across Europe. EPIC urges policymakers to adopt a tailored approach rather than a one-size-fits-all approach. Traditional combustibles should remain tightly regulated due to their high health risks. Nevertheless, new, demonstrably safer products deserve a distinct framework. Innovation should not be stifled by ideology. Instead, risk-based regulation should be introduced to support public health objectives while ensuring economic growth. In doing so, the EU can position itself as a global leader in progressive public health policy and industrial competitiveness.

A smart future within reach

Ending smoking in Europe is not a fantasy—it’s a feasible public health vision waiting to be claimed. But it requires courage, science-based policy, and the political will to change. Harm reduction is not a concession to the tobacco industry; it is a demand for smarter regulation that saves lives while protecting the European economy. As EPIC concludes, the EU has a historic opportunity to turn the tide, not by fighting smokers, but by empowering them to make safer choices.

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