#Kazakhstan - Ruling family is prepared for succession

Nursultan Nazarbayev’s time as President has come to an end, but his family will continue to hold the keys to power in Kazakhstan. At 78 years of age, Nazarbayev has finally stepped down. The timing of his resignation may have come as a surprise, but his departure was not unexpected. Many predicted that he would not run in the elections scheduled for 2020.

In 1991, the Republic of Kazakhstan declared its independence, after the collapse of the Soviet Union. A former steel worker and member of the USSR’s Communist Party, Nazarbayev immediately became the new nation’s President. He has held that position for nearly thirty years.

Nazarbayev has consistently won every election in Kazakhstan with a landslide victory, with almost 98% of the vote in 2015. It should be no surprise that these elections have faced criticism by the international community, primarily because they lacked any genuine opposition.

With a new leader, and fresh elections on the way, Kazakhs may hope for a chance to pick accountable leaders. Yet Nazarbayev has been making preparations for this moment and will continue to weigh in behind the scenes; as he reassured his people: “I will be staying with you”. The ruling family has been slowly consolidating all avenues of power, centralising Kazakhstan’s assets, and positioning itself for succession. There is no political competition; the opposition has long been harassed out of existence.

The President himself has assumed a permanent position as head of the country’s Security Council, which in July 2018 shifted from a consultative to constitutional role, responsible for the implementation of laws on national security and defence.

He also continues to hold the life-long position of ‘Elbasy’, or Leader of the Nation.

This role grants him immunity from criminal prosecution, along with similar protection for his family. Crucially, his family’s assets cannot be seized. Kazakhstan has one family that is clearly above the law.

But this is only the tip of the iceberg. The ruling family’s consolidation of power straddles all branches of government. In Kazakhstan, economic, legal and political power are all interwoven into a unified system of control.

The criminal justice system is an instrument for the state to silence opposition voices. The regime uses the language of combating corruption, while manipulating this apparatus to further their own interests.

We have seen many cases of journalists and activists convicted of financial crimes, while serious corruption cases go unpunished. Simply look at the case of Zhanbolat Mamay, among other similar cases. Mamay, the editor of an opposition newspaper, was convicted of money-laundering charges widely considered to be politically motivated. His prosecution relied on the testimony of just one individual, who themselves faced serious criminal charges. With reports of him being beaten while in detention, a clear message is sent to critics through cases like this.

The Kazakh economy is dominated by state-owned enterprises, which have significant advantages over private companies, as the involvement of government figures in their management board allows them to influence policy, and receive privileged access to state resources. These SOEs are able to use the mechanisms of the state for their own advantage.

Further still, the Kazakhstani sovereign wealth fund, Samruk-Kazyna, is generally understood to be a tool through which the ruling family exerts control over the Kazakh economy. It was created in 2008 by presidential decree and the state is the sole shareholder of the fund. Its new chairman is Askar Mamin, who was made Prime Minister after Nazarbayev dismissed the majority of the Kazakh government earlier this year.

Samruk-Kazyna owns, either in whole or in part, most of the nation’s major companies. This includes the national rail and postal service, the state oil and gas company KazMunayGas, the state uranium company Kazatomprom, Air Astana, and others. Furthermore, Samruk Kazyna and its subsidiaries are exempt from public procurement procedures, giving them significant advantages over other firms.

Business in Kazakhstan is not a level playing field, and while the President’s family holds the mechanisms of power, it will remain so.

Kazakhstan has made moves to appear more in line with international standards, but analysts have largely concluded that these are cosmetic in nature. In March 2017, the Kazakh parliament approved amendments to share some of the President’s powers with parliament and the cabinet, but what can these changes truly mean in a country with no opposition voice?

Dosym Satpayev, a political analyst based in Almaty, argued that these changes would not advance democracy in the country, since only pro-Presidential parties get seats in elections. Furthermore, the amendments kept the President as the ultimate decision-maker in all important issues. The President can still dismiss the prime minister and any other member of the government if he chooses.

Whoever succeeds the interim leader, Kassymzhomart Tokayev, will be a Nazarbayev loyalist. That person will inherit a system in which there are virtually no checks and balances. Long-standing rumours assert that it will be his daughter Dariga, who has just been appointed Chair of the country’s Senate.

Activists or politicians who have spoken out against the Nazarbayev regime, have done so at the risk of persecution. International organisations such as Human Rights Watch and Amnesty International have been deeply critical of Kazakhstan’s human rights record.

The government owns the main broadcast media outlets. Companies controlled by members of the President’s family are acquiring the rest, as reported by the Committee to Protect Journalists. What can ‘public opinion’ really mean in a media landscape dominated by one ruling family?

Nazarbayev’s presidency is formally over, but his control over the levers of power in Kazakhstan will continue for generations.

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