Erdogan may bury #Turkey in #Libya

On January 2, the Turkish parliament approved the sending of armed forces to Libya. 325 deputies from the ruling coalition of the Justice and Development Party and the Nationalist Movement Party voted “in favor”. “Against” - 184 deputies from the opposition.

On January 2, the Turkish parliament approved the sending of armed forces to Libya. 325 deputies from the ruling coalition of the Justice and Development Party and the Nationalist Movement Party voted “in favor”. “Against” - 184 deputies from the opposition.
“We are opposed to our soldiers die in the deserts of Libya. Turkey must go to Libya to make peace between the parties and not to fight”, said the leader of the Republican People’s Party Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu.

“We cannot throw our soldiers on the line of fire of the civil war, which has nothing to our national security,” the opposition Good Party believes.

The world also ambiguously reacted. So, Algeria and Tunisia say they do not accept the presence of foreign forces in Libya. The US is also against the interference of Ankara. The Arab League called for averting aggression. Greece, Cyprus and Israel made harsh criticisms of the Turkish authorities. Thus, Turkey has a chance to get into world isolation.

LIBYAN TRAP
Without understanding the Syrian province of Idlib - without showing absolutely any results there - with a weakened economy and undermined authority, Turkey embarks on a new adventure. The stake is made on ideologically close (“Muslim Brotherhood”) forces in Libya - the Government of National Accord (GNA), headed by Prime Minister Faiz Sarraj. Erdogan’s political career and the future of the Republic of Turkey are at stake. The risk is enormous, because Libya is in a much more deplorable state than Syria - there is no single power and constitution in the country. It is full of gangs and insubordinate terrorist groups. So in case of failure, Erdogan is unlikely to be able to explain his position. In the case of Syria, he at least has a Kurdish factor.

WHAT AWAITS TURKEY IN LIBYA
Firstly, there is war. And if before that, mainly Turkish mercenaries were under attack, now we are talking about the lives of Turkish soldiers. Losses are inevitable. As well as the need to subsequently explain to the native soldiers why their sons, brothers and fathers died in Africa.
It is also not a secret that on the side of the Libyan National Army (LNA) Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Egypt. Cairo (and Athens) may block airspace for Turkish aviation. In the case of Greece, it is possible to appeal to NATO for protection in connection with the violation of maritime borders.
How Ankara will act in this case is not very clear, given that Turkey is also a member of NATO.

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WHAT IS IN THE END?
A bet on the GNA is a bet on an illegitimate governing body in Libya, against which both Libyan law and the people. The fact is that the Government of National Accord was created in 2016 in accordance with the so-called “Skhirat Agreement”. According to the document, the GNA is a temporary organization that exists until elections in the country and until constitution is adopted. The mandate of the GNA is one year before the adoption of the constitution. And then another year, if the constitution is not adopted. Libya did not see either the elections or the constitution, since the beginning of 2018, the GNA has lost its legitimacy. Faiz Sarraj is now simply an impostor who does not have the right to speak on behalf of the Libyans.

n addition, according to the “Skhirat Agreements”, the Legislative power is vested in the House of Representatives, and without its approval the GNA cannot conclude a single international treaty. However, the GNA has long been acting independently and does not coordinate anything.
Thus, when (and if) the international community recognizes the illegitimacy of the GNA, it is not clear how Turkey will prove that it is not an aggressor country? How will Erdogan make excuses for supplying weapons, equipment and soldiers to terrorist groups?
Indeed, contrary to the “Skhirat Agreements,” the Government of National Accord officially works with militants on the UN sanctions lists for cooperation with ISIS. Bandits are even included in government agencies. For example, the RADA group, that controls private prisons where abducted people are held. There are regularly tortured, prisoners starved, killed and sold into slavery.
The same bandits oversee the business of transporting illegal migrants from Africa to Europe.
Against this background, anti-Turkish sanctions by the Arab League and the European Union cannot be ruled out.
These facts will become a significant trump card in the sleeve of Erdogan’s political rivals on the eve of the election.

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