Kazakh President sets out his goals for peace and prosperity

President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev of Kazakhstan has marked the New Year with a wide-ranging interview with the Egemen Qazaqstan newspaper. He did not duck the toughest questions about his country’s progress since the tragic events that rocked Kazakhstan exactly two years ago, writes Political Editor Nick Powell.

Dikhan Kamzabekuly interviews Pesident Kassym-Jomart Tokayev

After the upheaval caused by street protests that turned to violence at the start of 2022 and the major constitutional reforms of 2023, President Tokayev is looking forward to a period of sustained economic progress in a country rich in natural resources and with a pivotal role in trade between Asia and Europe. Speaking to newspaper executive Dikhan Kamzabekuly, the President said his government will act “scrupulously and systematically, steadily moving towards the set goals”, which include doubling Kazakhstan’s GDP by 2029.

The President was challenged about that target, which would boost the national economy’s size to $450 billion, when the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank forecasts project economic growth of 3%-4% in 2023-2024. “It is quite an achievable goal”, he insisted, pointing out that Kazakhstan achieved 15% growth between 2022 and 2023. “This is the highest nominal growth in Central Asia. Positive dynamics are also evident in GDP per capita, forecast to reach almost $13,000 in 2023, with an estimated annual growth of $1,600. According to the IMF forecast, by 2028, this figure is expected to grow by a third, reaching $16,800”.

“These favourable forecasts will become a reality if the government adopts new approaches to economic management”, the President stated. He reminded his interviewer that the government had been instructed to identify a list of possible large-scale projects and to prepare an infrastructure development plan. The other crucial task was attracting investment, including through privatisation and asset recovery. “Large-scale investment has the potential to ‘fuel’ the economy and create new growth”, he argued.

The Kazakh government is drafting a new tax code to reset the relationship between the state and business. “We need to strike a balance between creating favourable conditions for investors and maintaining the necessary level of budget revenues”, the President said, adding that there needed to be a fundamental change in the attitude towards budget funds, “focusing on the rationality, economy, and relevance of their use”.

New laws on public procurement and public-private partnerships will ensure transparency in public procurement and create a financial basis for economic development, he pledged. “It is important that all measures to stimulate economic growth are accompanied by structural reforms aimed at developing entrepreneurship and competition, protecting private property, and ensuring fair justice. With such an approach, we will achieve all our goals, including doubling the size of the national economy within the planned timeframe”.

President Tokayev said Kazakhstan will continue to pursue a constructive and balanced foreign policy, taking into account the national interests of the country. In 2024, the country will chair several international organisations, including the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, the Collective Security Treaty Organisation, the Conference on Interaction and Confidence-Building Measures in Asia, the Organisation of Turkic States, the International Fund for Saving the Aral Sea, and the Islamic Food Security Organisation.

Asked to justify the role of Russian peacekeeping forces during the Tragic January events at the start of 2022, the President said that as a member of the Collective Security Treaty Organisation, Kazakhstan had sought assistance from that organisation, not from Russia directly. A total of five countries had responded but purely as peacekeepers, guarding facilities and freeing up Kazakh forces for counter-terrorism operations. “The CSTO contingent indeed served as a peacekeeping force and played a deterrent role in the turmoil of those tragic days. By agreement with the participating countries, the organisation’s contingent left our country without any preconditions and, moreover, ahead of schedule”.

Kassym-Jomart Tokayev was pressed in the interview about the questions that still remain about the events of Tragic January, their main causes and preconditions. “In my opinion, the tragic events of January were caused by many years of unresolved socio-economic problems and general stagnation, which turned into the degradation of both the authorities and society. This was visible, as they say, to the naked eye”.

Since his election as President in 2019, he had set a course was set for the democratisation of the political system, liberalisation of public life, and demonopolisation of the economy. “To be frank, this new course caused a sharp rejection by influential individuals who perceived it as a threat to the deeply rooted state of affairs in the country and their privileged status in the power structures. Their covert and often open resistance to the reforms gradually grew. In the end, they decided to take extreme measures to reverse the changes and restore the previous order”.

“This group of high-ranking officials had enormous influence on the security forces and criminals, so the option of organising a violent seizure of power was chosen. According to the investigation, preparations began around the middle of 2021. Subsequently, the Government made an ill-considered, unlawful decision to sharply increase the price of liquefied gas, leading to demonstrations in the Mangistau region, instigated by provocateurs”.

“Extremists, criminals, and religious radicals collaborated in the coup d’état attempt. They aimed to spread fear among citizens, disorganise state institutions, undermine the constitutional order, and, ultimately, seize power”, President Tokayev added. His response was to accelerate democratic reforms, liberalising the laws on political parties and peaceful protest and moving away from the super-presidential model, with more power for the parliament and a limit on his own term of office.

This prompted what the interviewer described as a potentially unpleasant question about the role of President Tokayev’s predecessor, Nursultan Nazarbayev, who still enjoyed the status of Elbasy, or leader of the nation, until the recent constitutional reforms. “Since you have posed such a tough question, I must be very frank”, the President replied. “There indeed were attempts to impose a model of dual power, which were notably purposeful and well-organised … political manipulators formed a certain parallel centre of power. In our country, both the roles of the President and the Supreme Commander-in-Chief, and the Chairman of the Security Council, represented by the ex-President, were active. This inevitably led to a collision of power”.

“I will say more: this situation became one of the preconditions for the January crisis. This was because the conspirators attempted to exploit the contrived model of dual power, or ‘tandem,’ for their own interests … Later, I directly informed Nursultan Nazarbayev that the political games, primarily of his closest associates, almost tore the country apart. I believe there should be no ‘senior and junior’ presidents at all. When you leave, you leave”.

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