Nuclear ‘sabre-rattling’: Why is Russia threatening again? — Analysis insights

Amid new threats from Vladimir Putin regarding the use of the ballistic missile “Oreshnik” against “decision-making centers in Kyiv,” the War of Words project, an AI-powered tool for monitoring and analyzing Russian TV propaganda, has released an analysis of the dynamics of nuclear rhetoric on Russian television from January 2022 to November 2024. The study illustrates how nuclear threats are employed to influence domestic and international audiences, particularly during key events in the war against Ukraine, writes War of Words.

Bad news for Russia provokes a new wave of nuclear threats on TV

Monitoring data shows that peaks in discussions about nuclear weapons on Russian television and propaganda outlets closely correlate with key events in the war, including:

March 2022 — a peak of 541 mentions of the word “nuclear” on 3 March, 2022: Russia justified its invasion by alleging a supposed threat of Ukraine restoring its nuclear potential and accusing the West of plans to deploy nuclear weapons in Ukraine. This coincided with the crisis around the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant.

Autumn 2022 — a peak of 628 mentions of the word “nuclear” on 24 October, 2022: The intensification of nuclear threats in August–September aligned with the Ukrainian Armed Forces’ counteroffensive in the Kherson region, the sabotage of the Crimean Bridge, and Ukraine’s restoration of control over maritime routes.

February-March 2023 — a peak of 825 mentions of the word “nuclear” on February 21, 2023, and 809 mentions on March 27, 2023: A surge in rhetoric followed the International Criminal Court’s issuance of an arrest warrant for Vladimir Putin and sabotage actions by the Russian Volunteer Corps in the Bryansk region.

July 2023 — a peak of 675 mentions of the word “nuclear” on 5 July, 2023: The start of Ukraine’s counteroffensive and drone attacks on Moscow, including a strike on the Kremlin, triggered another wave of threats.

Spring 2024 — a peak of 737 mentions of the word “nuclear” on 2 February, 2024, and 766 mentions on March 13, 2024:This spike coincided with a series of successful Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian oil refineries.

May 2024: Another peak of 722 mentions of the word “nuclear” occurred on 6 May, 2024. This surge aligned with reports about Ukraine preparing a new counter-offensive, which heightened tensions on the battlefield and in the media. The Kremlin likely amplified nuclear rhetoric as a preemptive response to Ukraine’s anticipated military actions, aiming to deter Western support for Ukraine and create a climate of fear.

August – September 2024 with a peak of 698 mentions of the word “nuclear” on 26 September, 2024, coinciding with escalating frontline tensions and Ukraine’s operations in the Kursk region.

November 2024 — the latest peak of 656 mentions of the word “nuclear” on 22 November, 2024, follows the announcement that Ukraine had been granted permission to carry out strikes deep into Russian territory. This development likely triggered heightened nuclear rhetoric as a reactionary tactic by the Kremlin to dissuade further Ukrainian actions and to warn Western allies of the potential for severe escalation.

“The intensification of nuclear rhetoric is a systematic tool of Russian propaganda aimed at instilling fear and intimidating Ukraine’s Western allies and the international community. By frequently using terms like ‘nuclear weapons,’ ‘war,’ ‘strike,’ and ‘catastrophe,’ propagandists seek to sow uncertainty and anxiety. This topic remains central to the Russian propaganda narrative, serving as a tool for escalating tensions and aiming to reduce support for Ukraine, prevent a just peace, and assert Russia’s “right” to aggression solely based on its possession of nuclear weapons,” explains Volodymyr Borodyansky, founder of the War of Words research service on Russian propaganda and former Minister of Culture, Youth, and Sports of Ukraine.

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War of Words continues to track the evolution of Russia’s nuclear rhetoric to expose and counteract propagandistic narratives designed to destabilize the international community and justify its own aggression.

War of Words is the first English-language AI-powered tool with a 12-year archive of Russian propaganda, updated daily, enabling the analysis of 100,000+ hours of audio and video content from TV, Telegram, or RuTube with just a few clicks.

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