The Libyan Political Dialogue Forum is at an impasse

The Libyan Political Dialogue Forum (LPDF), has been held since 9 November in Tunisia. 75 delegates from Libya's three historic regions are expected to adopt a road map for a final political settlement, including agreements on a constitution, the establishment of a Presidential council and government, and parliamentary elections. However, after four days of the forum, we can conclude that the event, which was supposed to end the civil war in Libya is turning into a sham.

The organizer of the Libyan Political Dialogue Forum is formally the UN Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL), headed by American diplomat Stephanie Williams (pictured). It would seem that it should be interested in maximum transparency of the forum, because from the beginning there was little trust in it. However, the organizers do just the opposite.

In the West of Libya, a number of militias in Tripoli protested against the LPDF, saying that they would not take U.S. advanced decisions.

There is no full trust to the forum in the east of Libya too. The representatives of forces that support Libyan National Army of Khalifa Haftar say that 45 out of 75 delegates of LPDF represent interests of radical Islamists. Another claim is that 49 out of 75 members appointed Stephanie Williams personally. They represent supposedly 'Libyan civil society'. But there are suspicions that in this way the former U.S. Charge d'Affaires in Libya achieved control over the votes within the forum.

One of the main problems of the Forum is that it is closed to the outside world. In fact, no information about the negotiations is provided, except photographs. And photos also raise questions. None of them have 75 people whose participation is declared.

No more than 45 people are actively involved. Is it possible to trust the decisions to be taken behind the scenes by people whom the Libyan people did not choose? And will these decisions be made by the real participants in the conflict? It is doubtful.

On November 11, the organizer of the Libyan Political Dialogue Forum, acting Special Representative of the UN Secretary General for Libya Stephanie Williams said that the participants of the LPDF agreed on a plan to unite the authorities of the African country. It is assumed that elections will be held in Libya no more than 18 months after the beginning of the transition period.

During this period, the country should be governed by an interim government. However, no official information has been provided as to where that government will be located. And that is key.

Earlier, one of the representatives of the Libyan National Army Khaled Al-Mahjoub, confirmed that "what distinguishes the existing dialogues from other dialogues is the transfer of power from the hands of armed groups from Tripoli to Sirte, by transferring the headquarters of the state administration to Sirte and thus removing it from the hands of the armed groups that were controlling it and making it follow them”.

If the new interim government's headquarters are in Tripoli, it will repeat the sad experience of the current Government of National Accord (GNA). The international community believed that after the conclusion of the Skhirat agreement (Libyan Political Agreement) in 2015, peace would finally come to Libya. But that has not happened. Once the National Accord Government arrived in Tripoli in 2016, it fell under the control of influential Islamist groups holding the capital by then. And the GNA was transformed into an instrument of Islamic radicals from a government that was supposed to provide peace and compromise, the balance of power among the intra-Libyan players.

The same awaits a new government if it settles down in Tripoli. Sirte, as a city in the middle between Tripolitania, which is controlled by the current GNA and its militias and Cyrenaica (where the alternative Provisional Government is located), and as a city free from the control of Islamists, is best suited for the role of headquarters of the Provisional Government.

However, according to information from sources at The Libyan Political Dialogue Forum, the draft agreement to be signed by LPDF participants on 15 November lists Tripoli as the seat of the interim administration. Earlier, the draft agreement of the LPDF participants was published in the Internet. It has been published by an account that supports the GNA.

UNSMIL then stated that "any information about the forum that is not posted on the mission's website and social media pages is considered fake and intended to mislead public opinion”. However, the UN mission did not provide any real information to refute reports of the future government's location in Tripoli. It does not provide any specific information in this regard at all.

All of this only reinforces suspicions that UNSMIL is either hiding something from the Libyans and the international community, or no longer in control of the situation at the Forum.

Another LPDF problem is the lack of transparency in the elections of Libya's interim leadership and hyper-centralism of the UNSMIL approach.

According to the draft agreement, power in the country (including military) will be concentrated in the hands of the Prime Minister, which only the LPDF has the right to remove. The Presidential Council, where all Libya's regions are to be represented, will only serve as a collective commander-in-chief and symbol of national unity without real powers.

Thus, there will be no equilibrium and no consideration of the views of the regions in Libya. The region that will represent the Prime Minister will impose its will on the others. Given the location of the government in Tripoli, it is clear that it will be a representative of the West.

This is unacceptable for the East and South of Libya, regions of Cyrenaica and Fezzan, especially against the background of reports about attempts to prevent the election to the presidential council of Aguila Saleh, one of the initiators of the current peace process, Chairman of the House of Representatives, Libyan parliament. If key figures of Libya's East are not represented in the country's leadership, any new interim government will be stillborn initiative.

However, there is one more problem. There is a serious danger that power will be transferred to the radicals. Stephanie Williams represents the interests of the United States. And the most pro-American candidate now is Interior Minister Fathi Bashagha. It was he who had previously offered to host the United States military base in Libya. 

However, Bashagha is associated with the Islamists, accused of involvement in torture, he is the patron to the Salafists from the RADA group, who terrorize the residents of Tripoli and kidnap people.

It is now Fathi Bashagha who has been nominated by the “Muslin Brotherhood” to be the Prime Minister of the new Libyan government.

If he or another politician with a close history of engagement with the Muslim Brotherhood is elected, Libya will face a new conflict, and the country will continue to be a nest of Islamic radicalism that threatens the security of both Europe and Africa. Against the backdrop of Bashagha, even the current head of the GNA, the pro-Turkish Fayez Sarraj, seems moderate. Ahmed Maiteeq, Libyan business representative and deputy prime minister of the GNA, is considered an even more moderate and compromise candidate for the head of government.

Whoever takes the lead in Libya during the transition period must he or she should be a neutral person, whatever the new authorities are, they must be created on the basis of a balance of power through a process that is transparent to both Libyans and the international community.

Instead, in Tunisia, under the banner of the UN, the exact opposite is observed - attempts to impose the results of behind-the-scenes agreements between the US representative and individual Libyan political groups.  Perhaps the result of this process will provide some short-term interests of the United States, but the LPDF will not bring peace and unity to Libya. It is only natural that it should fail.

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