The faltering PR campaign of Old Kazakhstan

During her parliamentary speech on February 3, 2022, UK parliamentarian Dame Margaret Hodges shed light on a group of individuals associated with Kazakhstan’s former president, Nursultan Nazarbayev, who had illicitly funnelled billions of dollars through the United Kingdom - writes Poul Andreasen

With Nazarbayev's departure from power and the rise of Kassym-Jomart Tokayev as the new president, a significant challenge now looms over the so-called Old Kazakhstan elites, posing an existential threat to their status quo. The people of Kazakhstan strongly yearn for justice, and Tokayev has demonstrated a resolute commitment to delivering it. In this context, the initiation of prosecutions against these corrupt individuals in Kazakhstan not only holds potential for recovering and repatriating assets but also indicates the UK's willingness to collaborate in the pursuit of justice.

Following his inauguration as president in 2019, Tokayev initiated the dismantling of the Nazarbayev regime by revoking contracts granted to Nazarbayev’s relatives and other influential figures close to the former president. Additionally, he took decisive action by removing family members of the former leader from their governmental positions and cancelling their associated government contracts. However, Tokayev's campaign against corruption gained further momentum when widespread protests erupted, driven by the outcry against social inequality. Unfortunately, these protests were exploited as an opportunity to orchestrate a coup in January 2022, with the aim of appointing Karim Masimov, the chief of the KNB (secret police), as prime minister, effectively restoring the Old Kazakhstan leadership.

Contrary to expectations, the chaos did not result in Tokayev’s downfall. Eventually, order was successfully restored. Masimov, was apprehended and subsequently found guilty of treason and abuse of power. His conviction highlighted the magnitude of his illicit actions and their detrimental impact on the country.

For Masimov's team, his failure to seize control of Kazakhstan was a devastating setback. Without the protection of the Nazarbayev administration, the Old Kazakhstan faction is now relying on international lobbying and media campaigns led by billionaire oligarchs to gain leverage. Their goals include, among other things, securing the release of imprisoned Massimov.

Old Kazakhstan figures, including Masimov, continue to enjoy support from prominent public relations consultants and have hired journalists globally, many of whom financially benefited during the nearly three-decade-long Nazarbayev era. This support network extends to retired foreign government officials, particularly David A. Merkel, a former U.S. State Department official who has authored numerous favourable articles about President Nazarbayev and offered excessive praise to him at a U.S. congressional hearing. Notably, it is worth mentioning that Nazarbayev paid £20 million (US$29.1 million) to secure the services of former UK Prime Minister, Tony Blair.

David Merkel persisted in his efforts, publishing numerous critical articles targeting the Tokayev administration and advocating for U.S. government sanctions against Kazakhstani government officials, branding the regime as autocratic. Furthermore, he successfully lobbied a UN working group to demand the unconditional release of Masimov. It is noteworthy that the UN working group's decision was solely based on the opinion of an undisclosed single source.

Masimov is far from the Nelson Mandela image Merkel aims to project. His description of Masimov’s detention as “akin to Washington arresting James A. Baker III… in chains at the height of their service to their country”, is not only absurd but also insulting to the distinguished former Secretary of State.  Putting aside the treason, death and destruction he brought about in January 2022, Masimov's most egregious human rights violation stems from the rampant corruption he perpetuated in Kazakhstan, which cost the people of the country billions of dollars.

Scandals involving the sale of the country's natural resources, market access, and government contracts linked to Masimov continue to surface regularly. Two notable examples include reports of a €12 million bribe from Airbus in exchange for a contract worth €2 billion for 45 French helicopters, as well as a $64 million transaction payment made by Swedish telecom company Telia to a company controlled by Masimov's proxy, Aygul Nuriyeva, under the pretence of a "shareholder contribution" for an asset that was later written off by Telia. Masimov's alleged involvement in corruption cases extends to entities such as KazakhTelecom and RPO Operator LLC. Furthermore, Masimov played a central role in a conspiracy to transfer control of assets belonging to Nazarbayev University (valued in billions of dollars according to OCCRP) to foreign jurisdictions.

Masimov's criminal actions could potentially warrant sanctions from foreign authorities. In comparison to international standards, his sentence of 18 years appears relatively lenient considering the magnitude of his fraud. There have been instances where officials received life sentences for crimes that were considerably less severe in nature.

Masimov symbolized the epitome of corruption and the perpetuation of autocratic rule in Kazakhstan. In contrast, Tokayev has pursued a reform agenda that dismantled the authoritarian state. This included measures such as banning nepotism, limiting presidential terms, and laying the groundwork for the growth of democracy in the country.

Despite facing significant pressure from both Russia and the West, Tokayev has deftly maintained Kazakhstan's neutrality during the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Meanwhile, interest groups aligned with Old Kazakhstan will mobilize any argument, and even contradictory arguments, to halt the reform process and destabilize the leadership in hopes of clawing back their old positions.  One faction of oligarchs seeks to deepen their business ties with Russia, while another faction accuses the government of evading Western sanctions by citing the activities of the same oligarchs.

Ironically, David Merkel himself has been involved in representing Russian interests through his lobbying efforts. One example is his representation of Nils Ušakovs, the former mayor of Riga and leader of the Harmony Party, which appealed to Latvia's ethnic Russian population. Furthermore, Merkel has recently faced a subpoena in the U.S. courts regarding his lobbying work on behalf of Martins Bunkus, an allegedly corrupt Latvian bank liquidator who was tragically shot dead in Riga. This incident draws attention to Riga's reputation as a notorious hub for illicit financial activities, often referred to as the "Russian Laundromat".

Observers should question whose interests Old Kazakhstan loyalists like Merkel truly serve when they lecture others on human rights and label their opponents as Russophiles. “Masimov's PR campaign, [is] run by …David Merkel” declares Radio Free Europe in its April 2023 article on Masimov’s court trial.  Merkel’s perspectives on New Kazakhstan leadership should be understood in that context.

Poul Andreasen is a Danish expert in international relations.

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