#Brexit: May will say the EU-27 and the UK have a responsibility to reach a deal #Florence

Prime Minister Theresa May will make what has been trailed as a transformative speech in Florence today. Having moved the furniture on the deck, taking Olly Robbins into Number 10, held a marathon cabinet meeting – no doubt with the aim of getting the awkward squad on board – and delayed already hard-pressed negotiations for a week, May is ‘taking back control’, writes Catherine Feore.

The main lines of argument in the speech have already been leaked. Firstly, we know that May is likely to pony up and put some money on the table. This is good, because that EU-27 are close to immovable on this subject. The EU will expect current commitments to be paid and then funds to cover any transitional period. The amount for the transitional period – EUR 20 billion – would be approximately fair for the two year transition, but the EU will still want the current commitment to be paid. Nevertheless, there is now some light at the end of this particular tunnel.

The EU-27 have always been vague about the figure – partly because it is a figure that changes year-on-year – and are keener to simply ask for an agreed methodology.

More interesting than the Brussels reaction will be the UK reaction, particularly those wedded to the cliff-edge, no surrender, they can ‘go whistle’ approach to negotiation. First in line will be former minister and one time leadership hopeful John Redwood. It will also be interesting to see ‘the Boris’ reaction; in an ostentatious show of solidarity Philip Hammond (pro-soft landing) and Boris skipped out of Number 10 yesterday, almost hand-in-hand.

In a referendum designed to end Tory infighting on ‘Europe’ the fissures may be wider and deeper than ever. The only way to keep the party together may be the prospect of a Jeremy Corbyn victory in a future election.  Whether this be enough, remains to be seen; but they should make no mistake, the EU-27 cares not one jot about the future of the British Conservative Party. Au contraire, the prospect of Jeremy Corbyn and a future government that will indefinitely prolong membership and payment for Single Market participation is probably a good thing.

On citizenship, May is likely to offer more firm reassurances – maybe through future treaty. The EU-27 will want a firm commitment to uphold citizens’ rights, at the moment the European Court of Justice is the only way for these rights to be guaranteed. Expect extreme caution in the EU’s response. Anything other than ECJ jurisdiction is a slight to those who legitimately came to the EU or UK citizens who went to the EU-27 who would like their investment and rights protected.

The UK’s latest measures to check bank accounts, to create a ‘hostile environment’ for illegal migrants, the letters it sent earlier this month in error by the Home Office and reports that EU—27 citizens have been excluded from jobs, denied mortgages and are generally being made to feel unwelcome will mean that the 3 million EU citizens living in the UK feel more vulnerable than ever.

Little is expected on the Northern Ireland border from today’s speech. It is fair to say that this issue was of little concern to most UK voters. However, Ireland has the ability to block progress if the EU doesn’t see ‘sufficient progress’. A deal will also require the European Parliament’s nod; yesterday (21 September) Guy Verhofstadt was more outspoken than ever. Addressing the European Parliament yesterday, he said:

“In my opinion this can only be a unique solution. And most of the people I've met yesterday - from both sides of the border - believe that this unique solution requires that one way or another, Northern Ireland should remain part of the custom union and the single market.”

The UK team, nearly six months into the two year negotiating period looks divided, chaotic and deluded. Without major changes in the UK position the impasse is likely to continue. The UK is calling on the EU to take responsibility for a smooth exit; while all parties want a deal and smooth transition, the EU-27 expects solutions from the UK, they may be accommodating to a point, but they have no interest in rolling over.

May will say:

"While the UK's departure from the EU is inevitably a difficult process, it is in all of our interests for our negotiations to succeed... so I believe we share a profound sense of responsibility to make this change work smoothly and sensibly, not just for people today but for the world we leave them"

"The eyes of the world are on us but if we can be imaginative and creative about the way we establish this new relationship... I believe we can be optimistic about the future we can build for the United Kingdom and for the European Union."

If the UK thinks that cant will cut it, they will find they are sorely mistaken. The UK must finally address the EU-27 main priorities for phase 1 - the divorce phase of withdrawal from the EU - without settling these matters the future relationship will remain on hold.

Jean Claude-Juncker said the EU had the wind in its sails in his State of the European Union speech, but it is better to think of the EU as a large tanker, rather than a sailing boat. The UK needs to realise that though the EU-27 has its flaws it is slow at first to manoeuvre and gain speed, difficult to turn from its course and immensely powerful when it has choosen its direction.

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