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#VoteLeave: I wouldn’t bet on it

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BrexitOddsApril.jpg.pagespeed.ce.0FY0EjDP1lOddschecker, a betting odds comparison site providing real-time price updates, has looked at yesterday’s (21 June) bets on the EU referendum and the betting over the past seven days. While the opinion polls see a small lead for Remain, the punters are putting their money on a clear Remain win, writes Catherine Feore.

Just over 80% of total money staked has been on Remain. Oddschecker found that the average stake for Remain was  £299, five times higher than the average stake on Leave.  This trend is also reflected in the highest single amount wagered on each result, remain being more than £4,000 compared to a peak of £1,000 on leave.

"Combining the fact remain is the most popular bet with the figures that show those betting on it are far more willing to back the result with large sums of money, it appears the referendum has never looked so one-sided from a betting perspective," writes Oddchecker’s Matt Corner.

However, pollsters are still saying the vote is neck and neck. This is the latest polling from ComRes, one of the companies that successfully predicted last year's UK general election result:

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Tom Mludzinski, director of Political Polling, said: “There has evidently been a significant move in the last few weeks. We had seen Remain holding a comfortable lead but after the debates and the agenda switching to immigration it has narrowed the gap with Leave now in touching distance. The final week will be crucial in deciding this result with both sides trying to motivate their core voters and battling over the final undecideds – who are more likely to be women than men.”

However, that poll was conducted before the murder of Jo Cox MP. The death of the young MP has sent shock waves through both campaigns and has probably consolidated the Remain vote. The Leave campaign poster of refugees queuing, claiming that the UK was at 'Breaking Point' only two hours before Cox's death, has had an impact on the vote. Condemned by both Leave and Remain campaigners, 16 June may be recalled as the day that the Leave campaign definitively lost.

YouGov's more recent poll suggests that leave support may have already peaked:

YouGov also found that the British public thinks Turkey joining the EU in the next ten years is more likely than a recession happening if Britons votes to leave the EU (58% vs 49%). Given the overwhelming view of economists on the negative impact of a Leave vote and the clear veto that the UK would have over any accession agreement with Turkey (should they choose to use it), it would seem that the experts are being ignored in what has become a very emotional debate for the legendarily cool-headed Brits. 

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