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#Brexit: What will be the impact on Ireland?

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Taoiseach Enda Kenny and Prime Minister David Cameron

Ireland Taoiseach Enda Kenny and UK Prime Minister David Cameron

The UK and the Republic of Ireland have a relationship that goes back many years, indeed centuries. Over the past thirty years, that relationship has gone from strength to strength. English rugby fans say they receive a warmer welcome in Ireland than in any other country – in particular Scotland or Wales. The Irish have even cobbled together an OK cricket team. Old animosities have been largely thrown aside, culminating in the success of the Queen’s visit to Ireland in 2011, writes Catherine Feore.

The Brexit campaigners argued that when they left the EU they would continue to enjoy unfettered trade with the European Union; the UK has been told repeatedly that there will be no EU trade deal without free movement of people. For all the talk of forging trade agreements with the wider world, Ireland is still a much bigger trading partner for the UK than say China and EU membership doesn’t fetter Germany’s ability to trade with countries outside the EU. These two points were made again and again by the ‘Remain’ campaign to little avail. It is surprising that UK citizens have voted in a way that will damage by far and away their most important trading partner, the EU.

We spoke to Brian Hayes MEP about the importance of Ireland’s economic links with the UK:

The Taoiseach (Irish Prime Minister) Enda Kenny campaigned for a ‘Remain’ vote in the UK. Irish people resident in Ireland were allowed to participate in the referendum given the strength of UK-Irish ties. Following the vote, the Taoiseach issued a statement indicating that the economy has already proved itself to be resilient, but that the government would continue to monitor the situation. At the recent European Summit, European Central Bank (ECB) President Mario Draghi addressed the European Council saying that he expected recession in the UK and a spill-over effect that could be global. Nowhere will that spill-over be more felt than in the Republic of Ireland.

We spoke to Mairead McGuinness MEP about the impact on the border area:

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As much as the economic case very definitely matters, the political and cultural links binding the two countries are arguably even more important. Membership of the European Union provided a space in which British and Irish ministers worked together on a regular basis on common interests. The EU put Ireland and the UK on an equal footing, often finding that they were allies in European Council debates, sharing a free market  and more atlanticist view of the world. This co-operation helped lead to the first Anglo-Irish agreement and latterly to the Good Friday Agreement.

Unionist and nationalist Northern Irish MEPs worked in harmony on the European stage to defend the interests of Northern Ireland, in particular when it came to drawing down European funds. However, it wasn’t just about the money, it was easier for opposing politicians to work together in ‘Europe’ not in the UK or Ireland, but in a European Union created to promote peace and prosperity.

Enda Kenny sought to calm fears: ‘The implications of this vote for Northern Ireland and for relations between North and South on this island will require careful consideration. These will be a particular priority for the Irish Government.

"We will approach these issues in the same spirit of partnership that has underpinned the peace process and has transformed relationships on this island since the Good Friday Agreement.

"I welcome the Prime Minister’s clear statement that Northern Ireland’s interests will be fully reflected in the British Government’s negotiating position."

Reassuring words indeed, but the reality may be somewhat different. It is almost certain that some sort of border control will need to be reinstated. Northern Ireland may enter into a deeper economic recession with the rest of the UK. This could lead to social unrest and it is anticipated that the UK’s decision will have a very big impact on Ireland’s economy. Nationalist party Sinn Fein announced that it would seek a ‘border poll’ which is allowed under the Good Friday Agreement. This is unlikely to occur, but it is an indication of how volatile the situation is.

The main Unionist party the DUP (Democratic Unionist Party) gave their support to the Leave campaign, there may be recriminations and apportioning of blame to this party as the economy suffers. One of their MPs Ian Paisley – son of THE Ian Paisley – reassured voters by advising them to apply for an Irish passport. This was an astonishing suggestion from a party whose raison d’être is to keep Northern Ireland and its citizens British.

As the old Chinese curse goes, may you live in interesting times.

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