Copernicus: First automated pollen measurements allow cross-checking forecasts in several European countries in near real-time

A partnership between the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service and the European Aeroallergen Network has taken the first step in verifying pollen forecasts near-real-time through EUMETNET’s automated pollen programme “Autopollen”.

The Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS) has announced the first step in a joint initiative with the European Aeroallergen Network (EAN) to automated pollen monitoring in several European countries. Under the auspices of the Network of European National Meteorological Services (EUMETNET), various pollen monitoring sites have been equipped with automated observation capability as part of the “Autopollen” programme led by the Swiss Meteorological Service MeteoSwiss. On sites with automated pollen observations, forecasts can be checked in near-real-time whilst elsewhere they can only be evaluated at the end of the season.

CAMS, which is implemented by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) on behalf of the European Commission, currently provides four-day forecasts of five common pollen types; birch, olive, grass, ragweed and alder using sophisticated computer modelling. The automated pollen monitoring system is being trialled across 20 sites in Switzerland, Bavaria/Germany, Serbia, Croatia, and Finland, with plans to expand to other European countries.

These are the first routine automated pollen observations to have become publicly available which means that anyone who uses CAMS pollen forecasts, whether via an app or tool, or directly on the website, can check the daily forecast updates against the incoming observations and assess how accurate they are. While the system is still in an early stage, scientists predict that it will help significantly on the evaluation of how far forecasts can be trusted. Instead of evaluating forecasts at the end of the season, sites currently equipped with automated pollen observations allow cross-checking in near-real-time. Further down the line of the project, CAMS and EAN hope to improve daily forecasts using the observations through the process of data assimilation. Incoming observations will be processed instantly to adjust the starting point of daily forecasts, as it is done for instance in numerical weather prediction. Furthermore, a roll out to geographically cover all Europe with the support of EUMETNET is planned.

CAMS has been working with EAN since June 2019 to help verify its forecasts with observational data from more than 100 ground stations across the continent that have been selected for their representativeness. Through the partnership, forecasts have improved significantly.

Pollen allergies affect millions of people across Europe who may react to certain plants at different times of year. For example, birch pollen peaks in April and is more likely to be avoided in the south of Europe, meanwhile going north in July can mean misery for sufferers as grasses are in full flower at this time. The olive tree is common in Mediterranean countries and its pollen is highly prevalent from May to June. Unfortunately for sufferers, there are hardly no ‘pollen free’ regions as spores are transported across huge distances. This is why CAMS’s four-day forecasts are an invaluable tool for allergy sufferers who can track when and where they are likely to be affected. And the new automated pollen observations could become a gamechanger once the scheme is rolled out further.

Vincent-Henri Peuch, Director of the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS), comments: “The new automated pollen monitoring capacity developed by EUMETNET and the EAN is of benefit to all users who can check how far the forecasts are correct. While it is common today to verify air quality forecasts in real time, it is truly ground-breaking for pollen. This will also make the continuous development of our forecast models faster and in the medium-term they could be used in the processing of forecasts, too. Knowing you can check the forecast of the day, or the past few days, was correct is invaluable.”

Dr Bernard Clot, Head of Biometeorology at MeteoSwiss, said: “The automated pollen programme ‘Autopollen’ of EUMETNET is an exciting development for Europe and this is only the first step. While there are currently six sites in Switzerland, eight in Bavaria, and a total of 20 across the continent, we are coordinating the expansion of the network for full European coverage.

Copernicus is the European Union’s flagship Earth observation programme which operates through six thematic services: Atmosphere, Marine, Land, Climate Change, Security and Emergency. It delivers freely accessible operational data and services providing users with reliable and up-to-date information related to our planet and its environment. The programme is coordinated and managed by the European Commission and implemented in partnership with the Member States, the European Space Agency (ESA), the European Organisation for the Exploitation of Meteorological Satellites (EUMETSAT), the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), EU Agencies and Mercator Océan International, amongst others.

ECMWF operates two services from the EU’s Copernicus Earth observation programme: the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS) and the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S). They also contribute to the Copernicus Emergency Management Service (CEMS). The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) is an independent intergovernmental organisation supported by 34 states. It is both a research institute and a 24/7 operational service, producing and disseminating numerical weather predictions to its Member States. This data is fully available to the national meteorological services in the Member States. The supercomputer facility (and associated data archive) at ECMWF is one of the largest of its type in Europe and Member States can use 25% of its capacity for their own purposes.

ECMWF is expanding its location across its member states for some activities. In addition to an HQ in the UK and Computing Centre in Italy, new offices with a focus on activities conducted in partnership with the EU, such as Copernicus, will be located in Bonn, Germany from Summer 2021.

The Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service website can be found here.

The Copernicus Climate Change Service website can be found here. 

More information on Copernicus. 

The ECMWF website can be found here.

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