A major new report has heralded economic growth in Albania but warned that the “real test” will come in the country’s upcoming national elections, writes Martin Banks.
The report, by BMI Research, says the Albanian economy is “among the fastest growing” in the region.
This is in line with a separate analysis by Albania's official Institute of Statistics (INSTAT) which has released figures showing GDP growth for 2016 of 3.46%.
But the report by BMI, a research firm that is part of the Fitch Group and which provides macroeconomic, industry and financial market analysis, is qualified by highlighting what it says are the “risks” generated were the ruling Socialist Party to be defeated in the June 18 elections.
While EU accession criteria will remain an important policy anchor, the “risks of regression are arguably larger if the opposition wins power”.
This includes the possibility of higher inflation and “risks” to private consumption.
It states Albania, which enjoys EU accession membership status, has made “progress” at addressing political challenges over the last two years but the “real test” will come when the nation go to the polls.
“We believe,” it says, “the ruling Socialist coalition will hold on to power, implying a high degree of policy continuity.”
BMI Research, which covers 24 industries and 200 global markets, cautions that Albania’s external sector is “exposed” to two of Europe’s weakest economies (Greece and Italy) but that domestic demand will remain “robust”.
Infrastructure spending, in particular, will keep the Albania economy among the fastest growing in the region in 2017 and 2018, it goes on to predict.
The INSTAT report said the growth in 2016 was led by ommercial trade, tourism, construction and energy production and was fuelled in part by a fourth-quarter export surge of 16%.
Growth exceeded forecasts by both the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank.
Overall, the year's performance was the best since 2010 when growth was 3.7%, it says.
Welcoming the encouraging data, Albania’s Prime Minister Edi Rama said: "This is good news, but it's only the start of what we hope to achieve on the economy. My government's first term has focused primarily on institutional reform and improved governance. Now we are starting see the results -- in investment, business expansion and in job creation. Now we must pour all our efforts into economic expansion and generating rewarding jobs for our fellow citizens."
Finance Minister Arben Ahmetaj said the two reports confirmed an overall improvement in the Albanian fiscal situation, adding: "Stable government debt, as one of the most vital indicators of the macroeconomic health in the country, is now in a much more favourable position than it was a few years ago.”
Albania is officially a European Union "candidate country" and moves are underway to make Tirana ready for future membership. That means government reforms, more transparency, stamping out corruption and tackling widespread organised crime. Brussels is keen for the momentum to continue.
Last November, the European Commission issued a positive recommendation for Albania to open accession negotiations with the EU, but this is conditional upon tangible progress in implementation of the justice reform, in particular, the vetting of judges and prosecutors.
Iranian Opposition rally in front of US embassy in Brussels to ask US and EU for a firm policy towards Iranian regime
Following the G7 summit in London, Brussels hosts the NATO summit with US and EU leaders. It is the first trip of President Joe Biden outside the US. Meanwhile, the Iran deal negotiations have started in Vienna and despite the international efforts to return Iran and the US to compliance with the JCPOA, Iranians regime showed no interest to return to its commitments under JCPOA context. In the recent IAEA report, important concerns have been raised that the Iranian regime failed to address.
The Iranian diaspora, supporters of the National Council of Resistance of Iran in Belgium, held a rally today (14 June) in front of the US embassy in Belgium. They held posters and banners with the picture of Maryam Rajavi, the leader of the Iranian opposition movement who has declared a non-nuclear Iran in her 10-point plan for the free and democratic Iran.
In their posters and slogans, Iranians asked the US and the EU to work harder to hold the mullahs’ regime accountable for its human rights violations too. The protesters emphasized the need for a decisive policy by the US and the European countries to harness the mullahs’ quest for a nuclear bomb, stepped up repression at home, and terrorist activities abroad.
According to the new IAEA report, despite the previous agreement, the clerical regime refuses to answer IAEA questions on four disputed sites and (to kill time) has postponed further talks until after its presidential election. According to the report, the regime's enriched uranium reserves have reached 16 times the limit allowed in the nuclear deal. The production of 2.4 kg of 60% enriched uranium and about 62.8kg of 20% enriched uranium are of grave concern.
IAEA Director-General Rafael Grossi said: Despite agreed terms, “After many months, Iran has not provided the necessary explanation for the presence of the nuclear material particles…We are facing a country that has an advanced and ambitious nuclear program and is enriching Uranium very close to weapons-grade level.”
Grossi’s remarks, also reported by Reuters today, reiterated: “The lack of clarification of the agency’s questions regarding the accuracy and integrity of Iran’s Safeguard Declaration will seriously affect the agency’s ability to ensure the peaceful nature of Iran’s nuclear program.”
Maryam Rajavi (pictured), the President-elect of the National Council of Resistance of Iran (NCRI), said that the recent report of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and the remarks by its Director-General once again show that to guarantee its survival, the clerical regime has not abandoned its atomic bomb project. It also shows that to buy time, the regime has continued its policy of secrecy to mislead the international community. At the same time, the regime is blackmailing its foreign interlocutors into lifting sanctions and ignoring its missile programs, export of terrorism, and criminal meddling in the region.
Ex-EU Brexit negotiator Barnier: UK reputation at stake in Brexit row
Michel Barnier, the European Union's former Brexit negotiator, said on Monday (14 June) that the reputation of the United Kingdom was at stake regarding tensions over Brexit.
EU politicians have accused British Prime Minister Boris Johnson of not respecting engagements made regarding Brexit. Growing tensions between Britain and the EU threatened to overshadow the Group of Seven summit on Sunday, with London accusing France of "offensive" remarks that Northern Ireland was not part of the UK. Read more
"The United Kingdom needs to pay attention to its reputation," Barnier told France Info radio. "I want Mr Johnson to respect his signature," he added.
Parliament president calls for a European Search and Rescue Mission
European Parliament President David Sassoli (pictured) has opened a high-level interparliamentary conference on managing migration and asylum in Europe. The conference focused particularly on the external aspects of migration. The president said: “We have chosen to discuss today the external dimension of migration and asylum policies because we know that only by tackling the instability, crises, poverty, human rights violations that occur beyond our borders, will we be able to address the root causes that push millions of people to leave. We need to manage this global phenomenon in a human way, to welcome the people that knock on our doors every day with dignity and respect.
“The COVID-19 pandemic is having a profound impact on migration patterns locally and worldwide and has had a multiplier effect on the forced movement of people around the world, especially where access to treatment and healthcare is not guaranteed. The pandemic has disrupted migration pathways, blocked immigration, destroyed jobs and income, reduced remittances, and pushed millions of migrants and vulnerable populations into poverty.
“Migration and asylum are already an integral part of the external action of the European Union. But they must become part of a stronger and more cohesive foreign policy in the future.
“I believe it is our duty first of all to save lives. It is no longer acceptable to leave this responsibility only to NGOs, which perform a substitute function in the Mediterranean. We must go back to thinking about joint action by the European Union in the Mediterranean that saves lives and tackles traffickers. We need a European search and rescue mechanism at sea, which uses the expertise of all actors involved, from Member States to civil society to European agencies.
“Second, we must ensure that people in need of protection can arrive in the European Union safely and without risking their lives. We need humanitarian channels to be defined together with the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees. We must work together on a European resettlement system based on common responsibility. We are talking about people who can also make an important contribution to the recovery of our societies affected by the pandemic and demographic decline, thanks to their work and their skills.
“We also need to put in place a European migration reception policy. Together we shoulddefine the criteria for a single entry and residence permit, assessing the needs of our labor markets at a national level. During the pandemic, entire economic sectors came to a halt due to the absence of immigrant workers. We need regulated immigration for the recovery of our societies and for the maintenance of our social protection systems.”
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