#Libya crisis: A view from #Moscow

The crisis in Libya, according to official statements from Moscow, is a direct consequence of the illegal military operation conducted by the US and its NATO allies in gross violation to the UN principles in 2011. After the overthrow and murder of the Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi, the country ceased to function as a single state. Now Libya is ruled by dual power. In the East, the Parliament is elected by the people, and in the West, in the capital Tripoli there is the so called Government of national accord, formed with the support of the UN and the European Union, led by Fayez Sarraj. The authorities in the Eastern part of the country operate independently of Tripoli and cooperate with the Libyan national army led by Marshal Khalifa Haftar, who has not stopped trying to capture Tripoli since April 2019, writes Moscow correspondent Alex Ivanov.

Military operations have been going on in Libya for many years with varying success. However, so far, neither side can boast of significant achievements. As it’s known, recently the warring parties have been supported by external players. Turkey has sided with the Government of national accord by deploying a large military contingent and weapons in the Tripoli area. On the other hand, Marshal Haftar is supported by Saudi Arabia and Egypt, who supply the armed forces with military equipment, mainly Russian-made. There are also numerous reports about private military companies from Russia participating on the side of Haftar's army. At the same time the Russian side at an official state level denies any involvement into Libyan confrontation.

According to Russian foreign ministry statements, “Russia opposed the NATO adventure in Libya and is not involved in the collapse of this country”.

Nevertheless, since the beginning of the dramatic events in Libya, Moscow has taken active steps to normalize the situation both within the framework of multilateral formats under the auspices of the UN and on a bilateral basis. Moscow is seeking to maintain constructive contacts with all Libyan sides, convince them of the futility of attempts to solve existing conflicts by military means, pushing for dialogue and compromise.

As it is said in the MFA statements, the Russian side during the meetings with both sides of conflict, stressed the importance of an early cessation of hostilities and the organization of an inclusive dialogue with the participation of all leading Libyan political forces and social movements. In this context, Moscow expressed its support in principle for the initiative of A. Saleh, president of the chamber of deputies of Libya, dated 23 April this year, which creates a basis for establishing inter-Libyan negotiations in order to work out compromise solutions to existing problems and form unified state authorities in the country.

The Russian side also stands for consolidating international efforts in support of the Libyan settlement under the UN aegis, based on the decisions of the International conference on Libya held in Berlin on January 19, 2020, and UN security Council resolution 2510. In this context, the appointment of a new special representative of the UN Secretary-General for Libya to replace G. Salame, who resigned on March 1, was particularly relevant.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov (pictured) also confirmed more than once the readiness of Russian economic operators to resume their activities in Libya after the normalization of the military and political situation there.

Many analysts both in Russia and in Europe confirm that official Washington prefers to stay away from the Libyan crisis. Once taking part in the overthrow of the Gaddafi regime, the Americans seemed to lose interest in this region. However, observers believe that America is just waiting for the right moment to indicate its interests. It is clear to everyone that America has the necessary technology, equipment, and capital to launch most of the energy projects in this region.

As for Turkey's involvement in the intra-Libyan conflict, analysts believe that there is a specific economic interest behind this in terms of establishing control over gas routes in the Mediterranean. If Turkey manages to gain a foothold in Libya, most of the Mediterranean sea will be under the control of the two countries, which will give Ankara leverage to control gas projects on the sea shale in Israel, Cyprus and other places.

So, what about Russia regarding the situation in Libya? Official Moscow seems very active in trying to establish an inter-Libyan dialogue, including with international participation. Over the past two years, Moscow has often been the venue of meetings and negotiations between representatives of Tripoli and Marshal Haftar. Russia took part with great enthusiasm in an international conference in Berlin on the Libyan crisis in January 2020. However, the issue of reconciliation of the parties or a simple cease-fire remains open. The recent success of the Government of national accord, whose forces managed to push Haftar's forces away from Tripoli, including through the participation of the Turkish military, has again inspired one of the parties with confidence in the possibility of a military solution to the conflict.

Marshal Haftar recently visited Egypt, where his ally President al-Sisi decided to help him stabilize the unfavorable situation. The result was a Cairo initiative to cease fire throughout Libya, starting on June 8. The initiative was also supported by Moscow, which called on Tripoli to "promptly respond" to the proposals made from Cairo. Russian Deputy foreign Minister Mikhail Bogdanov said that Moscow considers the Cairo initiative on Libya as “a basis for starting a serious political process”.

However, Tripoli's reaction was categorically negative. They said that “Libya does not need additional initiatives”. Khaled al-Mishri, the head of The Supreme state Council, which operates jointly with the Government of national accord, said that the commander of the Libyan national army, Khalifa Haftar, "must surrender and face a military tribunal".

Unfortunately, this stance of Tripoli was absolutely predictable, first of all, taking into account recent military successes in the confrontation with Haftar's army. The logic is simple: if you win, why negotiate with the enemy? But, alas, such a logic of behavior is unlikely to ensure long-term success and, moreover, bring peace to a country torn by civil war.

Analytical circles in Russia and abroad are actively discussing the future of Libya in the light of the ongoing war there. Many experts agree that in the near future we can hardly expect a movement towards reconciliation and reunification of the country. Libya is a very specific entity in which inter-clan and inter-tribal relations play a crucial role. Only a really strong and ruthless leader like Gaddafi, who ruled with an iron hand, can bring Libya together.

But there is no such leader in the present-day Libya, so the prospects for peace there remain elusive.

This analysis represents the views of the author. It is part of a wide range of varying opinions publishedby  but not endorsed by EU Reporter.

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