#Brexit: The European Commission is not playing games

UK Prime Minister Theresa May will say today (10 0ctober) that 'the ball is in the EU-27's court. A Commission official said that sporting or card-game metaphors aren’t helpful when there are no winners or losers as such: "The process of Brexit just needs to be managed", writes Catherine Feore.

The fifth round of Brexit negotiations (Article 50) starts today. Unlike in previous rounds the Secretary of State for Exiting the EU, David Davis, will not make an initial statement before the negotiations begin and will leave negotiating his team.

The Secretary of State will attend the House of Commons as Prime Minister May is making a statement on Brexit this afternoon. The statement is being trailed as an announcement by May that after the more placatory tone of her Florence speech, she now expects some give on the EU's side, saying "the ball is now in the EU’s court". In particular, the UK is saying that it would like to see more progress on a future relationship during phase one, something that the current negotiating mandate rules out.

The European Commission’s Chief Spokesperson Margaritis Schinas said that the European Parliament's resolution - adopted by almost all political parties, last week - was clear on sequencing and that they too required the divorce proceedings to take place before plans for a future relationship.

Today’s negotiations will start with citizen’s rights. Areas such as family reunification and the system for registration and settled status remain to be resolved. The most thorny issue remains that of judicial oversight. There is a suggestion that British courts could follow European Court of Justice (ECJ) judgements. How this would work in practice is not clear. Current rules give direct effect to European Law, usually guaranteed by British courts referring cases to the ECJ.

On Northern Ireland, the negotiators will seek agreement on drafting on the Common Travel Area (CTA – the longstanding agreement between Ireland and the UK on certain freedom of movement provisions) - the CTA pre-dates the UK and Ireland’s membership of the EU. The negotiator will also map all North/South bodies that exist as a part of the Good Friday Agreement’s North/South co-operation – it is estimated that there are more than 120 such entities.

This morning Irish Taoiseach tweeted that a customs border would be a barrier to trade and an obstacle to peace. Ireland has the ability to block progress, should the UK not present plausible options:

A customs border would be expensive, a barrier to trade & an obstacle to peace. That's why we are working to prevent it, with support of EU.

— Leo Varadkar (@campaignforleo) October 9, 2017

The financial settlement discussions are less clear - in previous rounds, the technicalities of a settlement were discussed. Theresa May’s Florence speech seemed to indicate that the UK would – as requested – respect commitments made while a member of the EU. However, the ensuing discussions during round four of negotiations showed that the UK and EU-27 were still poles apart in their interpretation of what this meant.

The EU and EU-27 member states are concerned by the continuing turbulence in British politics with different lines being taken within the Prime Minister’s cabinet. There has been much speculation about the future of Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson, who has published separate ‘red lines’ without asking cabinet colleagues. There is also speculation about a leadership challenge.

Today’s statement in the House of Commons aims to reassert the Prime Minister’s control of her cabinet. The Prime Minister will also launch two consultation papers one on customs and one on trade.

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