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GB exports to Ireland slump as Brexit bites

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Despite constant assurances that trade between Britain and the island of Ireland would flow smoothly in the post-Brexit World, the reality is proving to be quite the opposite. GB exports to Ireland are declining, revenues are falling and it’s only March, as Ken Murray reports from Dublin.

They say it was the Greek philosopher Aesop who once said in 260BC: “Be careful what you wish for, lest it come true.”

Three months in to the British exit from the European Union, some doubters in the Conservative Party in London must be wondering at this early stage if political divorce from Brussels was such a good idea after all.

New figures from the Irish Central Statistics Office (CSO) reveal that during the month of January this year, British exports to the Republic of Ireland fell by £856 million or just under €1 billion compared to the same month in 2020.

To put that another way, British exports to southern Ireland fell by 65%. The figure is worse in the area of food and live animals where exports to the Republic fell by 75% or €62 million, a clear sign that the graphs are going downwards!

Whether COVID-19 and lack of consumer demand is to blame is still unclear but one thing is certain, British goods entering the Republic of Ireland are being met with unwelcome customs checks and import controls which are proving to be a major inconvenience for GB exporters and Irish importers.

Already, much anticipated alarm bells are going off with the Irish Road Hauliers Association saying that not only was this to be expected but additional costs are mounting which have the potential to drive some trucking companies out of business.

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In a press statement, it said: “Through engagement with transport and logistics companies, we are aware of problems and backlogs in the supply chain, particularly in GB.

"We know that the introduction of new import and export regulatory requirements alongside new checks and controls on trade between the EU and UK, excluding Northern Ireland, adds additional burdens on companies and our Departments and Agencies are continuing to engage with companies and haulage and logistics companies to help them work through these new checks and controls." 

However the CSO said in its statement that some of the decline in British exports may have been due to pre-Christmas stockpiling and the fact that the hospitality sector in Ireland is closed due to the Covid pandemic thus reducing consumer demand for certain products.

With British suppliers to Ireland losing out financially-so far- there are growing signs, ironically, that north/south trade on the island of Ireland is picking up!

Northern Ireland, which is politically in the UK but technically speaking, is ‘remaining’ in the European Union purely for trade purposes only, has seen its traders record increased volumes of product purchased from the Republic instead of GB to circumvent long customs checks, inspection controls and delays at ports such as Belfast and Larne.

The CSO figures show that Republic of Ireland imports heading south from Northern Ireland were up by 10% from €161m to €177million.

On the other hand, exports going to Northern Ireland from the South were up 17% in January from €170m to €199m compared to the same period in 2020.

While this change in purchasing patterns may be good for some opportunistic traders in the Republic, any further decline in British exports to the island of Ireland may force Boris Johnson to do an embarrassing u-turn on a previously held position.

Speaking in the House of Commons London on January 13th last, he told Sir Jeffrey Donaldson of the Northern Ireland Democratic Unionist Party that his Government would have "no hesitation" in triggering Article 16 of the N.I. Protocol if 'disproportionate' problems arise.”

The activation of Article 16 would see a contentious hard physical border re-instated on the island of Ireland to allow free movement of goods between GB and Northern Ireland.

Such a move though could spark a re-emergence of hostile Irish republican terrorism and would, in all likelihood, see the US Government refuse to sign a trade deal with the UK.

Joe Biden, the most ‘Irish’ US President since JFK, has indicated more than once in recent months that any move to undermine the 1998 British-Irish Peace Agreement would severely strain relations between Washington and London.

With falling GB export revenues from Ireland and a threat to impose Article 16, Boris Johnson may yet regret what he wished for!

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