Analysis: A Meloni election win could shift Europe's balance of power

The EU's balance of power is in flux as it deals with Russia's aggression on Europe's east flank, and the worst energy and cost-of living crises since decades.

Italy's most right-leaning government since World War Two will be Meloni's if she wins Sunday's election. Despite her downplaying her far-right past cracks have appeared in her coalition regarding foreign policy.

The former Italian Prime Minister Silvio Bernlusconi, whose Forza Italia Party is part of Meloni's coalition said that Russia was "pushed" into the conflict with Ukraine, underscoring the challenges ahead for Meloni. His comments will likely concern Western allies.

One official from the EU said that "all eyes are on Rome right at this moment".

There is concern that a "populist Front" could form in Brussels, Paris, and Berlin after a victory for Sweden's Nationalists. This would block EU decision-making, as it seeks to prevent recession and protect households from inflation.

Mario Draghi (Italy's former prime minister and president of the European Central Bank), raised Italy's profile on the European stage and gave credit to the European Central Bank. He also supported the French President Emmanuel Macron's desire for deeper integration.

Meloni's intentions may be less clear. While she presents her Brothers of Italy party to be a mainstream conservative force that has moved away from post-fascism roots but some Europhiles are skeptical.

"It is concerning that a founding member state of the EU is in this situation. It is a threat for the EU and Italy," Rolf Muntzenich said, a lawmaker from German Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s Social Democrats party.

German magazine Stern adorned its front page with a photo of Meloni, under the banner: "The most dangerous woman in Europe."

According to sources, Macron privately stated that he was concerned about Meloni winning. Macron expressed optimism about the future relations with Italy when he was asked publicly.

NEW ALLY

Hungary and Poland are two examples of European democracies that have been tested.

Supporters of Viktor Orban, Hungary's nationalist Prime minister, see Meloni as an opportunity for Budapest gain a new ally to fight the EU executive.

Zoltan Kiszelly (an analyst at Szazadveg, a pro-Hungarian think tank), stated that Orban "will probably be able to depend on the support Italy in rule of law disputes in the EU."

Officials are also optimistic in Warsaw, where the ultraconservative government is often on Orban's side.

Zdzislaw Krasnodebskia (Polish lawmaker, Law and Justice) said that right-wing parties are getting more support than ever. "This is an opportunity to correct European policies."

Rome-born Meloni shares Orban’s anti-immigration views as well as the promotion of traditional family values.

She has however pledged prudent fiscal policy to continue unity with NATO and European Union partners in support of Ukraine against Russia.

In a video, she also tried to assure potential EU partners her intentions.

"I read that a victory by Brothers of Italy in September would be a disaster. It would also amount to an authoritarian turn. This would lead to Italy leaving the euro and other absurdities. She said that none of this is true.

According to analysts and European officials, Meloni has been in close contact with Draghi's establishment to smoothen the transition of power and prevent Italy from spiraling into crisis during times of economic volatility.

Marc Lazar, a specialist in Italy at the Paris-based thinktank Institut Montaigne, stated that this was done "to make her realize how important certain issues are and that it's not possible to mess up."

'SKY IS FALLING NARRATIVE'

Officials in Brussels aren't sure how Meloni will manage Italy's portion of the European Recovery Plan, which is supposed to unlock €192 million in return for domestic Reforms.

It is also worth noting that Italy's interest rates are rising faster than those in the euro zone, raising concerns about Italy's debt.

According to a French government source, Macron will hold talks with Scholz about how to deal Italy in the next days.

Officials from Italy's outgoing government warned Paris not to confront Meloni in public. This was to avoid pushing Paris into a corner that might make it difficult for her to choose but to strengthen ties with Orban.

A French source from the government said that "the Italians who spoke to me in Rome were telling me: don't put her into Hungary's arms".

Macron will refrain from using the same combative language he used against Matteo Salvini (another hard-right coalition partner of Meloni) during the 2019 European Election Campaign. He framed it as an existential battle between 'nationalists’ and 'progressives', according to a second French official.

Pablo Simon, a professor of political science at Carlos III University, Madrid, suggested that a Meloni win could energize far-right parties elsewhere, as spiralling consumer prices hurt households.

However, Washington White House officials reacted to concerns.

One US official stated that "this kind of'sky' narrative about the Italian election does not align with our expectations".

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