Moldova at a crossroads: European aspirations, Russian threats, and the battle for democracy

Moldova, a small yet strategically significant country between Romania and Ukraine, is navigating a volatile political landscape. With its aspirations for European Union (EU) membership, the country faces internal struggles, Russian influence, and energy insecurity. As the 2025 parliamentary elections approach, Moldova stands at a pivotal moment—caught between European integration and the shadow of Kremlin-backed destabilisation.

European integration: A path to stability

Since her re-election in 2024, President Maia Sandu has reinforced Moldova’s commitment to the EU. European support has been instrumental in strengthening governance, rule of law, and economic growth. Crucially, the EU has also helped Moldova reduce its dependence on Russian energy, making it less vulnerable to the Kremlin’s pressure tactics. This support provides Moldova with a real opportunity for a stable and prosperous future within the European community.

However, Moldova’s pro-European stance faces significant challenges from both internal opposition and external threats.

Putin’s expansion plans and Moldova’s vulnerability

Moldova has become an important piece in Russian President Vladimir Putin’s broader expansionist strategy. Since launching the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, the Kremlin has sought to exert influence over former Soviet republics, including Moldova. While Russia has not directly invaded Moldova, it continues to use hybrid warfare tactics—economic pressure, political manipulation, disinformation campaigns, and support for pro-Russian actors—to destabilise the country.

Putin’s interest in Moldova is tied to both geography and geopolitics. Moldova’s location makes it a potential corridor for further Russian expansion into Europe, especially if Ukraine falls under greater Russian control. The breakaway region of Transnistria, where around 1,500 Russian troops remain stationed, serves as a permanent leverage point for Moscow to pressure the Moldovan government.

Recent intelligence reports indicate that Russia has been working to orchestrate political unrest in Moldova, funding pro-Russian parties and leveraging figures like fugitive businessman Ilan Shor to destabilise the government. Shor, convicted for his role in Moldova’s infamous “billion-dollar bank fraud,” has been accused of channelling Russian money to finance protests and pro-Kremlin propaganda aimed at undermining Maia Sandu’s administration.

The opposition and the risk of a Russian-aligned government

The upcoming parliamentary elections in October 2025 will be a crucial test of Moldova’s democratic resilience. Opposition leader Alexandr Stoianoglo, backed by the pro-Moscow Socialist Party, has formed a coalition named “Alternative” to challenge the ruling Party of Action and Solidarity (PAS). This coalition, which includes Chisinau Mayor Ion Ceban and former Prime Minister Ion Chicu, could shift the balance of power in parliament and jeopardise Moldova’s European course.

If a pro-Russian government were to take power, Moldova could see a rollback of EU-backed reforms, an increase in Kremlin influence, and a potential halt to its European integration process.

Transnistria and the Russian energy crisis

The breakaway region of Transnistria remains one of the biggest challenges to Moldova’s sovereignty. Home to 350,000 residents and around 1,500 Russian troops, the region has suffered heavily since Russia halted gas supplies on January 1, 2025. The abrupt cut-off has led to severe heating and electricity shortages, forcing school closures and factory shutdowns.

Russia’s decision to halt gas supplies to Moldova as a whole is widely seen as an attempt to exert political pressure. Although Moscow claims the move is due to unpaid debts, Moldovan officials argue it is yet another example of the Kremlin using energy as a geopolitical weapon. The EU’s support in diversifying Moldova’s energy supply has been crucial in mitigating these challenges.

Looking ahead: A defining moment for Moldova

As Moldova prepares for its next electoral test, the stakes have never been higher. The country’s European aspirations are within reach, but internal divisions, Russian interference, and figures like Ilan Shor pose significant threats. Moldova must continue its fight against corruption, maintain its commitment to democratic reforms, and strengthen its alliances with the EU to secure a stable and prosperous future.

Putin’s broader expansionist plans mean that Moldova is not just fighting for its own future—it is also a frontline state in the battle for European security. The coming months will determine whether Moldova solidifies its place in Europe or falls victim to external destabilization. One thing is clear: the resilience of its people and the support of its European partners will be crucial in shaping the nation’s destiny.

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