Is a united Ireland just around the corner?

Northern Ireland has remained under British rule since 1921 when London divided Ireland thus creating two jurisdictions on the island. However, as our correspondent Ken Murray reports from Dublin, a number of recent opinion polls suggest that changing attitudes and demographics coupled with forthcoming milestone events are likely to speed up calls on 10 Downing Street to give the go-ahead for an Irish unification Referendum within the next five years.

In Northern Ireland, pop: 1.8 million, you are likely to be on one side of the political divide or the other. If you’re a working class Irish catholic you totally oppose British rule in favour of a united Ireland.

On the other hand, if you are a pro-British unionist from the protestant community, loyalty to the Monarchy in London has been built in to your DNA going back to the English Reformation in the 16^th century and the plantation of Ulster.

But despite 25 years of civil war from 1969 to 1994 costing more than 3,500 lives in a push by Irish republicans to end British rule in the province peppered with numerous stops and starts in the evolving peace process, significant change is afoot in Northern Ireland which suggest that its days in the UK are numbered.

An opinion Poll carried out by LucidTalk for the BBC NI Spotlight TV programme revealed last week that a majority of people on both sides of the Irish border are of the view that Northern Ireland will be out of the United Kingdom by 2046.

The survey of 2,845 participants in N.I. and 1,008 in the Republic revealed that 49 per cent of people questioned said that if there was a border today, they would vote to remain in the United Kingdom.

43 per cent of those questioned in Northern Ireland said they would vote for unification while eight per cent didn’t have an opinion.

South of the border in the Irish Republic, 51% said they would vote for a united Ireland if a referendum took place today with 27% voting against.

However 51% of those polled in Northern Ireland said they didn’t expect N.I. to be in the UK in 25 years time.

Simultaneously, a Red C Poll carried out for European Movement Ireland revealed amongst other things, that 43 per cent of people in the Republic don’t expect unification by 2031.

With 66 per cent in NI saying they definitely wanted a Border Poll within the next five years and 37 per cent opposing, the Survey was dismissed by British PM Boris Johnson.

He told the Spotlight programme that he couldn’t see an All-Ireland Referendum for “a very, very long time.”

Keen to play down the results of the Poll, Irish Taoiseach Micheál Martin (pictured) appeared to adopt a wait and see approach saying he didn’t see a referendum happening for some time stating that such an exercise would be “explosive and divisive.”

The figures from the polls ignore the fact that three major milestones are coming down the line that are likely to speed up calls for such a unification vote.

If the Scottish National Party secure the majority of seats in the forthcoming Assembly election on May 6^th, increased pressure will come on Boris Johnson to grant an independence Referendum.

Should that happen within the next two years and the SNP win, the United Kingdom as a political block will be finished thus speeding up calls for a similar Poll in Ireland.

Assembly elections in Northern Ireland in May 2022 are highly likely to see the pro-Irish unity party Sinn Féin win the majority of seats putting them in the dominant position for the first time since the province was cut off from the Republic in 1921.

In the meantime, the Northern Ireland census will be published next year and is expected to see the catholic numbers in Northern Ireland surpass protestants for the first time in over 300 years, a further but highly significant development that will speed up calls for a unity referendum.

Northern Ireland's Deputy First Minister and Sinn Fein leader Michelle O'Neill told RTE TV in Dublin last weekend that “now is the time to talk and plan for something better in relation to a united Ireland.”

She said: “Partition had failed Northern Ireland, adding that it was the slowest growing economy across the islands.”

Reacting to the LucidTalk Poll, Northern Ireland’s First Minister and leader of the staunch pro-British DUP party Arlene Foster dismissed the figures telling BBC NI "this whole thing that a united Ireland is just around the corner, I have heard that all my adult life”.

"This is a feature of narrow nationalism, that they use this sort of inevitability argument that we are going to move towards a united Ireland.

"Over this past while we have spent so much time and I have listened to so much debate over a united Ireland but yet there is no balanced debate of where we are in a global United Kingdom moving forward."

In the meantime, all eyes are on the outcome of the Scottish Assembly elections next week which, ironically, could be the catalyst for change in Ireland.

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