NI Unionism in trouble

With three high profile unionist leaders quitting their roles in the space of two weeks, protestants in Northern Ireland are facing in to a critical period of political uncertainty. As Ken Murray reports from Dublin, a merger between the two main parties that are struggling to guarantee long-term British rule in the Province may be the best option for the future and even at that, there’s no guarantee it will work!

Two weeks ago in a somewhat surprising bolt out of the blue, members of the pro-British Democratic Unionist Party staged something of a rebellion when they signed a treacherous letter calling on their leader Arlene Foster (pictured) to step down.

The unexpected move sent shockwaves through the political system on the island of Ireland.

Mrs. Foster, 50, was having a bad enough week as it was having found herself in a Belfast court locked in a defamation case against Channel 4 TV celebrity Doctor Christian Jessen who implied in a tweet that the married unionist Leader had been having an extra-marital affair with a member of her security team.

If that wasn’t stressful enough to contend with in any week, Mrs. Foster was then shafted by her colleagues.

The rebels ruthlessly decided to blame her after their Party had been shafted by Boris Johnson for the implementation of the Northern Ireland Protocol, the new controversial Brexit arrangement whereby certain goods entering NI from GB have to be checked at ports in Belfast and Larne.

As the hardliners saw it, her failure to prevent this development sees Northern Ireland notionally edge closer towards unification with the Republic of Ireland and further away from the grasp of London.

DUP Party colleague and unionist hardliner Sammy Wilson MP implied that her successor faces just as tough a time in the job as Brexit and other issues show no sign of going away.

He told BBC N: "Maybe a new leader will not be able to escape from some of the unfair criticism which has been attached to Arlene on this.”

To add to the DUP’s difficulties, the Party’s deputy Leader Lord Nigel Dodds, who quickly saw the sharks heading in his direction, also quit his role last week.

To make matters worse for Northern Ireland unionism, the Leader of the once un-beatable and rival Ulster Unionist Party Steve Aiken, a former commander in the British Navy, resigned as party leader on Saturday last just as the SNP was about to secure 64 seats at Hollyrood in Edinburgh and increase its call for an end to the union with Britain!

In a resigning statement, Steve Aiken said he “had taken the Party as far as he could.”

With the UUP failing to elect any MPs to Westminster in 2019 surpassed by the smaller Alliance Party which secured one and only holding 10 seats in the NI Assembly compared to 28 for the DUP, it seems Mr. Aiken hadn’t taken the Party very far at all!

Unionism on both sides of the Irish Sea is clearly in trouble!

On Friday next May 14^th, the DUP will elect a new leader.

Edwin Poots, the ultra-religious, homophobic and climate change right-winger is currently the favourite and he has indicated that if elected, he will stall co-operation with Dublin on North-South bodies while simultaneously seeking a legal review of the NI Protocol.

All that before he puts road blocks in the way to prevent the introduction of the agreed Irish Language Act, moves which could increase sectarian tension.

If his rival Sir Jeffrey Donaldson, who opposed the 1998 British-Irish Peace Agreement succeeds, continuity with Foster is expected albeit with greater emphasis on bringing greater unity within the divided DUP and increasing pressure on London to end the NI Protocol.

“I will go on a listening tour to re-connect with communities and members on the ground”, he said last week suggesting the Party needs to do more to connect to its grassroots members in the heartland.

In the meantime, the beleaguered UUP will continue the search to appoint its 6^th leader in 16 years!

Doug Beattie is expected to take control but it’s a job no other apparent candidates are putting their hands up and shouting “Please pick me.”! Did I say unionism is in trouble?

Whoever succeeds, the would-be leader faces unstoppable forces that the DUP have little or no control over.

Rapidly changing demographics indicate that the pro-Irish unification party Sinn Féin will win the most seats in next year’s 2022 Assembly elections in Northern Ireland putting them in the political driving seat for the first time since 1921!

Added to this, the Northern Ireland Census to be published next year is 99.9 per cent likely to see the number of catholics surpass the number of pro-British protestants in the province for the first time since the 17^th century, ensuring a louder call from Irish nationalists for an historic unification referendum.

With internal warfare going on within the DUP and the UUP not knowing if it’s coming or going, the questions begs as to where these two parties are headed for as Sinn Féin slowly starts to emerge over the hill with its victory flag partly aloft ready for the far-off ultimate prize of a united Ireland.

The much respected political commentator Alex Kane, a former communications officer with the Ulster Unionist Party, believes the time has come for the two rival unionist parties to put their ideological differences aside and amalgamate.

Speaking to BBC NI TV on Sunday Politics, he said, “if they [the UUP] don’t get it right this time, if they do not make progress whether the [Assembly] election is in September or some time next Spring, if they do not win seats, increase their votes make a dent on the Alliance [Party], it’s a waste of time and I do know that certain people in the Ulster Unionist Party who quite like the idea of a gentle merge in to the Democratic Unionist Party.

“…….this is an existential moment for the Union, an existential moment for unionism and I think that if it is Doug Beattie and I suspect it will be Doug Beattie [who succeeds Steve Aiken], that is going to be his biggest challenge.”

Unionism is definitely in trouble and all that before Boris Johnson deals with the fallout from the Scottish Assembly elections.

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