#Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s high-stakes trip to the West

For decades, Saudi relations with West have revolved around two main poles: oil and security. But with the precipitous fall in oil prices and the promotion of now-Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) earlier this year, the stakes have changed drastically – a fact that was put on prominent display during his trips to the UK and the US in March, followed by a trip to France in April. The flurry of visits was meant to showcase the Kingdom’s forward-looking reform plans, dubbed Vision 2030.

Notably, the Crown Prince didn’t stop only at Downing Street and the White House during these visits. Having wrapped up meetings with high-ranking government officials in Washington, he is now criss-crossing the country, with stopovers in Boston, New York, Seattle, San Francisco, Los Angeles and Houston. The expansiveness of his trip is a sign of just how much is at stake for the prince, and how critical closer collaboration with the UK, US, and other Western partners will be if he is to achieve his ambitious reform goals and turn his country’s partnerships with these countries into more comprehensive alliances.

The wide-ranging objectives of MBS’ reform plans were apparent in London, where he covered security, strategic and economic issues in meetings with Prime Minister Theresa May and other officials. The two states are planning to launch a UK-Saudi Strategic Partnership Council aimed at building closer economic and cultural ties, with potentially billions of dollars’ worth of agreements at stake.

Yet the young prince’s goals have become even more obvious on the US leg of his trip. According to a leaked version of his itinerary, he is meeting not only with the president and other government representatives like secretary of state nominee Mike Pompeo, but also with media mogul Rupert Murdoch, New York Times columnist Thomas Friedman, and UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres in New York, as well as finance industry insiders; energy industry executives in Houston; and tech titans like Bill Gates, Elon Musk, and Tim Cook on the West Coast. Not only that, but in a first for a high-ranking Saudi official, he will even meet with entertainment executives – including Walt Disney Company executives and even Oprah – in Hollywood.

All of these meetings dovetail to a varying extent with the Saudi government’s reform plans under Vision 2030, which this year include moves such as raising gas prices, opening up cinemas, allowing women to attend sporting events, issuing tourist visas, and investing in education and vocational training programs. The government has also enacted stock market reforms that might result in index compiler MSCI granting the Saudi exchange “emerging market status” in June. The centrepiece of these reforms is the looming Initial Public Offering (IPO) of Saudi Aramco – which has annual revenues in excess of $450 billion, making it the world's largest company. All this, as part of a wider drive to end the country’s addiction to oil, make its economy more dynamic, and attract foreign investors.

Of course, the crown prince is not the only one out courting. Ahead of Brexit, the UK is keen to solidify trade partnerships with allies like Saudi Arabia and a host of other countries. With the future of its foreign trade alliances uncertain, the government has been trying to open up new opportunities for British companies in fields such as tourism, education, and healthcare, where the country has competitive advantages. The UK is also eager to receive more inward investment from the kingdom, with its eyes set on hosting the Aramco IPO on the London stock exchange as a major prize for the taking.

The US, too, has expressed its interest in Saudi investment in the country and business leaders are salivating at the prospect of hosting the upcoming IPO in New York City. And like the UK, Washington has also expressed support for what many see as long-overdue economic, domestic and societal reforms in the country.

Yet at this point, Saudi Arabia remains the dependent one in its relationship with the West, in far greater need of support from London and Washington than the other way around. Yes, both the UK and the US have ties with the kingdom, based on mutual energy and security interests, that go back decades. But when it comes to the economic aspect of their relationship, the dynamics remain firmly in favour of the West. As a result, the question now becomes the extent to which MBS and his advisors can convince their hosts that they are serious about reforms. And so far, it seems he’s on the right track.

On one hand, things are indeed looking up for the kingdom. Ratings agency Moody's said in a report earlier this month that higher public spending and the stimulus measures being enacted as part of Vision 2030 should allow the economy to return to growth this year after shrinking in 2017. Global banks, such as HSBC, say they expect more business in Saudi Arabia this year owing, in large part, to the reforms taking place. On the other hand, many of the proposed market and regulatory reforms are still being rolled out, so gauging their impact will only be possible after several years.

Few Middle Eastern leaders have been as aggressive in their Western outreach as MBS. And to be sure, the Crown Prince has his work cut out for him. He must juggle competing interests around diplomatic and military issues while also focusing on investments, technology and economic diversification. No easy task. But first and foremost, he must persuade his Western partners that his plan to radically transform his country will succeed.

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