DR Congo - Rwanda - Uganda... What does the latest UN report say?

A few months after the European Commission took a stance on the situation in the Eastern Democratic Republic of Congo, the UN has published a concerning report on Rwanda and Uganda's interference in the conflict engulfing the provinces of North Kivu, South Kivu, and Ituri.

Context in the East of the Democratic Republic of Congo

Since 1996, the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) has been ravaged by three wars, known respectively as the First Congo War (1996-1997), the Second Congo War (1998-2003), and the Kivu War (2004-present). These conflicts have caused between 5.4 and 6 million deaths, mainly due to diseases and malnutrition related to the violence, and more than 7 million displaced persons.

From 2004 to 2009, the Kivu War pitted the Armed Forces of the Democratic Republic of Congo (FARDC) against the Democratic Forces for the Liberation of Rwanda (FDLR) (defending the interests of Rwandan Hutus refugees in DRC opposed to Paul Kagame) and the National Congress for the Defense of the People (CNDP) (aiming to defend the Tutsi community).

On March 23, 2009, a peace agreement was signed in Goma, dissolving the various rebel groups. In 2012, former CNDP members integrated into the regular army, considering that the Congolese government had not respected the terms of the March 23, 2009, peace agreement, mutinied. This rebellion gave rise to the March 23 Movement (M23), a rebel group claiming to defend the Tutsis in DRC.

In 2013, the M23 was defeated by a joint military action of the FARDC and the UN, with the United Nations Organization Stabilization Mission in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (MONUSCO). The M23 troops were disarmed, some sought refuge in Uganda and Rwanda, others were integrated into the Congolese army, while some returned to civilian life or joined other armed groups active in the region. For 10 years, from 2013 to 2021, except for a few minor incidents, the M23 ceased its activities.

Despite the series of measures implemented in 2013, the underlying tensions were never fully resolved, and factors such as the incomplete implementation of peace agreements, the discontent of former combatants, internal political tensions in the DRC, ethnic rivalries, the very precarious socio-economic situation in the east of the DRC, and regional influences ultimately led to the resurgence of the group in 2021.

Indeed, at the end of 2021, the M23 rebels decided to take up arms again against the government forces, plunging the provinces of North Kivu, South Kivu, and Ituri into a new cycle of violence. Since the resumption of fighting, the number of internally displaced persons, according to the UN, is 1.7 million, bringing the total to a record 7.2 million. Since July 2023, the M23 has nearly doubled the area under its control and has strengthened its parallel administration.

European Commission's Position

In March 2023, Josep Borrell, High Representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy and Vice-President of the European Commission, issued a statement condemning Rwanda for escalating hostilities in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC).

In this statement, the European foreign policy chief expressed concern over the worsening humanitarian situation exposing millions of people to human rights violations in the eastern part of the DRC. The EU specifically condemned Rwanda's support for the M23. The statement also highlighted the presence of Rwandan military troops on Congolese soil.

In parallel, on February 19, 2024, the European Union concluded a memorandum of understanding on raw materials with Rwanda. This memorandum, as highlighted by the Commission, aims to encourage Rwanda to improve traceability and transparency regarding the origin of minerals it exports.

This commitment materializes in the Extractive Industry Transparency Initiative (EITI). This initiative, stemming from the memorandum of understanding, plans to invest 2.5 million euros from 2023 to 2027 to improve the traceability of minerals exported by Rwanda to ensure they do not originate from the DRC.

Still in this effort to compel Kigali to end its support for the M23 rebellion, on July 4, 2024, the EU decided to freeze the review of its new 20 million euro military aid to the Rwandan army, which was intended to help combat jihadists in Mozambique.

Rwanda and Uganda in the Crosshairs of the UN Security Council Report

While in October 2023, the UN Secretary-General, Antonio Guterres, had already expressed his concern over the risk of direct confrontation between the DRC and Rwanda, the UN has now raised the tone. On Monday, July 8, 2024, as the UN does every six months, a report by the United Nations expert group once again highlighted the Rwandan army's support for the M23 rebel group but also accused Uganda of supporting the M23 for the first time.

Summary of the UN Accusations against Rwanda

This forty-page document mentions training camps, missile launchers, the deployment of "3,000 to 4,000 Rwandan soldiers," forced recruitment of children, and systematic firing on urban areas. According to these researchers, Rwandan officers have "de facto" taken "control and direction of the operations" of the armed rebellion.

Indeed, the number of Rwandan troops in the DRC could exceed the estimated 3,000 M23 fighters. This document presents numerous aerial photographs captured in areas under the control of the M23 and Rwandan armed forces. These images show columns of soldiers in uniform, some carrying or using heavy artillery and large-caliber weapons. There are also armored vehicles equipped with radars and anti-aircraft missile systems, as well as pickups and trucks transporting troops.

According to the report, children as young as 12 have been recruited in nearly all Rwandan refugee camps, which house about 80,000 Congolese according to the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR).

These children are then sent to training camps in rebel-controlled areas, under the supervision of Rwandan soldiers and M23 members. Recruits aged 15 and older are trained in combat and deployed on the front lines.

The report also specifies that the recruitment of minors in Rwanda is often orchestrated by intelligence agents, who use false promises of money or work. Those who resist are generally forcibly taken.

Kigali's Reaction

This report comes amid escalating tensions between Kigali and Kinshasa. Indeed, last June, Rwandan President Paul Kagame stated that his country was ready to go to war with its Congolese neighbor. As of July 12, 2024, Rwanda has not yet denied the latest UN accusations, and given the recent statements of its leader, may choose not to.

Kampala's Double Game

While accusations against Rwanda have been reiterated every two years in reports published by UN experts, this is the first time Uganda has been denounced as a co-belligerent.

Indeed, the report denounces the "double game" played by Kampala. On one hand, Uganda cooperates militarily with the DRC to fight the Allied Democratic Forces (ADF). The ADF is an armed group of Ugandan origin formed by opposition movements to Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni, which operates mainly in eastern DRC but also commits atrocities in Uganda.

The ADF pledged allegiance to the Islamic State (IS) in 2019 and is considered a terrorist group by Uganda. The ADF is currently the deadliest armed group in the DRC, with nearly 1,000 victims recorded in 2023, according to the authors.

To combat this common enemy, in December 2021, the Congolese Defense Minister Gilbert Kabanda and his Ugandan counterpart signed a military cooperation agreement between the two countries in Bunia. Kabanda stated that the agreement also aimed to "examine, amend and sign the general cooperation agreement on defense, in order to assume the past and progress towards comprehensive defense cooperation between the Democratic Republic of Congo and Uganda."

Yet, at the same time, UN experts claim that Kampala supports the M23. The report describes how Ugandan authorities allowed M23 forces and the Rwandan army to cross Ugandan territory without restriction. A prominent and visible presence that, according to experts, could not have escaped Ugandan intelligence services. The report concludes that there is "active support" from some army officers and military intelligence.

The experts go further, stating that it is not just transit through Ugandan soil but that leaders of the armed movement have also traveled to Uganda. According to the report, Sultani Makenga, the M23 military chief, was observed several times this year in Entebbe and Kampala. Corneille Nangaa, the political branch leader, stayed for a while in the Ugandan capital, where he even held meetings with representatives of some Congolese armed groups.

Kampala's Reaction

Uganda dismisses the UN accusations as "laughable" and "baseless." "This report has absolutely no scientific basis. It lacks documentation and is biased. We have no reason to support these rebels, while we are part of regional mechanisms for resolving conflicts in eastern DRC," said General Felix Kulayigye, spokesman for the Uganda People's Defence Force (UPDF), the regular Ugandan army, on Wednesday.

From Internal Destabilization in the DRC to Regional War in the Great Lakes Region?

As tensions continue to rise week after week, the internal destabilization of the DRC raises fears of the birth of an external conflict and the potential advent of a regional war… the international community holds its breath.

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