Attacks on EuroChem plants threaten rise in food prices

Recent weeks have offered grounds for cautious optimism regarding the prospects of a ceasefire in Ukraine: negotiations held in Istanbul led to a prisoner exchange between Ukraine and Russia. The first phase of the exchange, involving over 300 people from each side, took place on May 24. However, at the same time, both parties are exchanging drone strikes, and the spiral of escalation threatens to spin out of control.

On the night of May 24, the Ukrainian military responded to the brutal bombings of Kyiv with its own strikes on plants in central Russia. This time, among the targets was JSC "Azot", the largest nitrogen fertilizer producer in Europe, located near Tula. As a result of the strikes, the plant—which produces thousands of tons of fertilizer per day—was shut down. Tanks containing the toxic gas ammonia were damaged, and assessing the consequences and eliminating the damage will take time. This attack, setting a precedent, could lead to a new expansion of the conflict.

Until now, Ukraine had not attacked Russian fertilizer plants, and fertilizers themselves have not been subject to direct Western sanctions. Russia is one of the key producers of fertilizers in the world, and sanctions against them would lead to a sharp rise in prices not only for fertilizers themselves but also for agricultural products. Fertilizers were part of the grain deal between Russia and Ukraine, which operated in 2022–2023, under which Russia agreed not to obstruct the maritime export of grain from Ukraine in exchange for the easing of sanctions on its own food exports. The deal collapsed in 2023, but in 2025 it began to be discussed again between Russia, the U.S., and Ukraine as one of the elements of ceasefire negotiations.

Ukrainian officials have not yet explained the reasons why the Ukrainian army decided to attack "Azot." Russia’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs has already stated that the increased Ukrainian drone strikes will be met with an "adequate" response. In Russia, voices are growing louder among those calling for a symmetrical response to Ukrainian attacks—by striking Ukraine’s civilian infrastructure connected to food production and export.

This could mean that the Russian army will expand the list of targets it strikes. In the past, Russia used a similar rationale to justify attacks on Ukrainian power plants, which disabled more than 70% of the country’s thermal generation—this was presented as retaliation for Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian oil refineries.

Now, by analogy, Russia’s strikes could target Ukraine’s agricultural export infrastructure—ports, grain elevators, sunflower oil storage facilities. At present, agribusiness exports are one of the foundations of Ukraine’s economy: in 2024, according to the country's Ministry of Agriculture, they amounted to $24.5 billion, or 59% of all Ukrainian exports. Thus, Russian drone strikes may be aimed at undermining Ukraine’s primary source of revenue.

For the whole world, including Europe, this would mean rising food prices and a repeat of the 2022 situation, when prices for grain and sunflower oil soared by 30–40% in a matter of months. Since then, prices have almost halved amid slowing inflation. However, the trade wars initiated by the Trump administration are likely to lead to renewed inflation growth and, at the same time, to an economic slowdown—meaning declining household incomes. As a result, for ordinary consumers, rising food prices in 2025 could turn out to be even more painful than in 2022. Mutual strikes by Ukraine and Russia on food production infrastructure may lead to a shock in global markets—one potentially greater in scale than the energy market shock of 2022.

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